365
FXUS64 KMAF 080243
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
943 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE, FIRE WEATHER...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Updated to expire the current Red Flag Warning and to upgrade
Wednesday`s Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather in the short term as a broad upper level low situated
over northern CONUS transitions to an positively tilted trough by
Thursday, maintaining dry southwesterly flow aloft over the region.
A tightening gradient and downsloping westerly winds today and
tomorrow indicate above-normal temperatures with breezy winds both
afternoons, and highs should reach the upper 80s/low 90s with 100s
along the Rio Grande. Given the gusty winds and low humidity, fire
weather concerns return today and tomorrow with a Red Flag Warning
in effect for today...more information can be found in the fire
weather discussion below. Precipitation chances are nil for the
short term with the dry northwesterly flow aloft, and overnight lows
will be warm in the upper 50s to low 60s. Things start to change
just beyond the short term period as a cold front associated with
the aforementioned trough pushes down into the region, likely
sometime on Thursday.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday night, a secondary upper trough is forecast to develop
over Nevada/Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, a cold front will backdoor
the northeast after midnight.  Thursday, the front will continue
pushing southwest, but today`s runs retard it a little, apparently
due to diurnal heating, keeping it north of the Pecos by 00Z Friday.
This will result in highs AOB normal north of the Pecos, and only a
little cooler than Wednesday to the south.

Thursday night, the front resumes its southwest progress after
sundown w/loss of daytime heating.  MOS wants to create high gap
winds through KGDP, but this is a little late in the year for that.
As a result of the front, highs Friday will be a paltry ~ 8-10F
below normal.  A few showers are possible invof the front in the
lower Trans Pecos.  Saturday, temperatures should be very similar to
Friday`s, if not a bit cooler, despite dirty ridging over the
region.  The dryline is forecast to be west of the area, and
shortwaves moving through the ridge are forecast to develop
widespread convection across the area, making Saturday our best shot
at rain this forecast.  Attm, models depicts 50-60kts of deep layer
shear, but steeper lapse rates look to stay west of the area on the
other side of the dryline.

Sunday through Tuesday, a warming trend ensues.  Convection is
possible Sunday afternoon, but the dryline will be farther east.
Monday/Tuesday, rain chances, if any, will be confined to the
northeast.  By Tuesday afternoon, highs should be back to 2-4F above
normal, and this could be the warmest day this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Generally CAVU conditions expected across all area terminals
through 09/00Z. Gusty west to southwest winds will diminish around
sunset this evening, remaining in the 10-15 knot range overnight,
then pick up to a westerly direction sustained around 15 knots
with gusts in the 25-30 knot range around 08/16Z. -bc

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Once again, an extremely dry airmass will remain across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity falls to below 10% for the entire region with
elevated west winds continuing across the western half of the
area. Fuels remain very dry across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas south to the Presidio Valley where they have not received
any rainfall recently. ERCs across these locales remain at or
above the 75th percentile. RFTIs are expected to climb to critical
to extreme levels across much of these same areas Wednesday
afternoon through the evening and the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as a result. Near critical fire
weather may return again on Thursday where it remains dry and
somewhat breezy ahead of an incoming cold front but this may
remain localized enough to preclude the need for fire weather
products. This cold front clears the region Friday bringing better
moisture. Rain chances and increased moisture continue into this
weekend, ending fire weather concerns for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  92  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  90  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  95  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  80  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  88  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  91  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  91  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     61  94  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...88