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000
FXUS65 KPIH 210824
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
As our ridge of high pressure shifts eastward today we return to
more zonal flow aloft courtesy of a passing low farther north in
central Canada. We`ve also got the associated cold front moving
through the area today, but we will warm up ahead of the front
anyway with highs in the mid and upper 60s through most of the Magic
Valley, Snake Plain, and valley locations in the Southern Hills.
Outside of these areas will still warm into the 50s to low 60s.
Gusty winds are also in the cards today with almost everyone seeing
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. The strongest gusts are expected in some of
our "usual" windy areas across the Arco Desert and portions of I-84
from the 86 split down to the Utah state line. The NBM wants to give
these two spots about a 50 to 60 percent chance of wind gusts of 45
mph, though current HREF data maxes out wind gusts closer to 40 mph.
As mentioned in previous discussions, this is very near Wind
Advisory criteria, though with low confidence on these stronger
gusts being widespread, will continue to message the wind gusts but
refrain from issuing an advisory. As the cold front works eastward
today, we will also see about a 20 percent chance of showers and
storms, particularly in the Eastern Highlands.

Behind the cold front, Monday will be a quiet day again with
temperatures about 5 degrees cooler in the afternoon. Winds will be
lighter, but still a bit breezy at times with gusts around 20 to 30
mph in the afternoon.
AMM

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.
Extended forecast remains consistent. On Tuesday, a ridge is
overhead but the overall flow switches to southwest. We`ll see
moisture associated with the next storm system produce scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms across southern Idaho. On
Wednesday, we`ll transition from the ridge to an upper level
trough. During that transition rain chances should increase,
although coverage should still be scattered. Wednesday looks to be
the warmest day in the extended with much of the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley in the low 70s for highs. As we move into the late
part of the week, an upper trough will dig into the northern Great
Basin. Rain chances start trending towards likely as we move
later in the week while temperatures should slip back closer to
around 60 in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley which is still
seasonable. Snow levels still look relatively high, generally
above 7000 feet.
13


&&

.AVIATION...Should see winds pick up this afternoon with gusts of 20
to 30 kts possible across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Gusts to
20 kts from the west/southwest are a distinct possibility at KSUN
resulting in a crosswind that could impact arrivals. Isolated
showers are possible this afternoon near DIJ as well. Ceilings
likely will remain vfr at all TAF locations today.
13


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No major changes in hydro forecasts at this time.
Water levels on the Portneuf river continue to run high, just
below moderate flood stage for the Portneuf river in Pocatello.
The river forecast for the Portneuf river in Pocatello shows the
river running above flood stage for the foreseeable future. At
Topaz, levels remain and are forecast to remain very near minor
flood stage. Levels are forecast to slowly rise towards the end
of this next week with warming temperatures through Wednesday and
the return of precipitation chances in the second half of the
week. McKaughan/Moore


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$