Text Products for AFD Issued by SLC

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 122140
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
340 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Southerly winds will remain breezy into Saturday
ahead of an approaching Pacific storm system that will bring
gradually cooler temperatures and some unsettled weather to the
area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...The ridge axis that was
over the area yesterday has shifted east into Colorado this
afternoon in response to a broad low approaching the California
coast. In between these two features, Utah and southwest Wyoming
is seeing some breezy winds, though these have been staying below
advisory criteria. Temperatures have been quite unseasonably warm,
particularly over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming where many
locations are seeing highs around 20F above seasonal normals.

Compared to yesterday, seeing greater development of mountain
cumulus as well as some increasing high clouds as some weak
shortwave energy moves through the southerly flow. Seeing a few
radar echoes over southern Utah and the threat of isolated showers
will spread northward into the early evening. Given the very dry
lower levels, little if any of the associated precipitation will
be making it to the ground, but cannot rule out an outside threat
of a dry microburst over the next few hours.

The Pacific low is expected to make its way into the Great Basin
by early Sunday, splitting as it does so. Given that the feature
will be west of the area through the short term period,
precipitation threat is minimal at best, but with lowering heights
and some modest cold advection, will start to see a downward trend
in temperatures, though they will stay on the mild side through
the weekend.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Sunday will be a transition day
ahead of our next cutoff low set for arrival on Monday. Sunday will
see cloud cover increasing along with continued breezy southerly
winds and temperatures cooling a few degrees, but still remaining ~5
degrees above normal. By Monday, valley rain and mountain snow will
spread into Utah and persist through the overnight hours.
Temperatures will trend down to near normal areawide. QPF totals
aren`t too impressive with the 25th-75th percentile totals ranging
from <0.1"-0.25" for valleys and 0.1"-0.5" for mountain locations.
The trajectory of the low will favor central Utah with the highest
QPF totals.

Guidance continues to trend away from a trough impacting Utah/SW
Wyoming by midweek. Only 27% of ensemble members now bring the
trough close enough to bring precipitation to far northern Utah and
SW Wyoming. The remaining members keep the trough to our north and
east, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend as
high pressure builds back into the region. The CPC outlook does
slightly favor most of the CWA for above average precipitation in
the 8-14 day window.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty south winds will remain in place through
the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. An area of
elevated showers is expected to progress to the southeast of the
airfield which may produce gusts in excess of 35 mph between 02Z and
05Z. Thereafter, gusty south winds are expected to subside after
about 06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across the forecast area through the valid TAF period. An
area of elevated showers are expected to progress from south to
north through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
Though cloud bases will remain above 7kft AGL and precipitation will
not reach the ground, gusty winds in excess of 35 mph in the
vicinity of these showers are likely. Gusty south to southwest winds
are anticipated to prevail through much of the overnight hours
across the western Utah valley areas, with generally light, terrain
driven flows across the eastern valleys.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
