147
FXUS63 KTOP 020818
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning across the
  area, then end from west to east through the afternoon and
  evening.

- Drier moves in for Friday before another system moves in
  overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

- Active weather returns again early next week with more chances for
rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Early this morning a broken line of storms were moving through north
central into northeast Kansas. A few of the storms had produced
damaging wind gusts as of 07Z. Water vapor shows a perturbation
exiting the upper trough over the Rockies over northwest
Kansas. This was producing additional convection west of the
leading line of storms. Short term models show the storms moving
eastward through the morning hours, but weakening as they do
so. The potential for severe wind gusts had decreased with
eastward extent across northeast Kansas at 08Z. A cold front
will move into north central Kansas after 12Z this morning then
proceed eastward across the rest of the forecast area exiting
areas in east central Kansas later this afternoon. There remains
the potential for areas of northeast and east central Kansas to
see some isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds
and quarter size hail the main hazards. The storms are expected
to come to an end in northeast and east central Kansas this
evening with the front moving south of the area and forcing for
ascent ending as the mid level trough moves off toward the upper
midwest. Cool air advection behind the system will bring cooler
temperatures to area tonight sending temperatures into the 40s
to lower 50s.

Friday is still looking dry through the daytime with surface high
pressure over the area. However this will be short lived as another
mid level wave sweep across the central Plains Friday night sweeping
a cold front through as well. Mass response ahead of the approaching
system will bring ample moisture back into central and eastern
Kansas. A line of storms is forecast to develop Friday night and
then move southeast into Saturday morning. Main hazard with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and to a lesser extent some hail
around quarter size. Surface ridge of high pressure ridge as well as
ridging aloft moves in for Sunday.

Another potent system takes aim on the central Plains on Monday with
a negative tilt shortwave trough moving through. This system will
have the potential for severe weather. Dry weather is expected
behind the system on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s and
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR expected prior to tsra moving through the terminals in the
08Z to 12Z time period. Expect mvfr cigs along with mvfr vsbys
and some ifr vsbys with the storms. MVFR cigs look to persist
through 20 to 22Z at TOP and FOE with some additional SHRA
expected. MHK looks to become vfr after 18Z. Southerly winds
around 12kts at MHK will shift to the west to northwest winds in
the 13Z to 17Z time period. Winds shift at TOP and FOE after
16Z to 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53