Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 271610
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1210 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018


.UPDATE...

Subtropical Storm Alberto in the northeastern GOM will continue to
spread moisture into our southeastern tier through the afternoon.
While this area will initially receive the main bands of showers
early this afternoon, these will continue to move north as Alberto
also heads north. So anticipate this activity to become more
widespread through the afternoon/evening hours. Pop-up showers
and isolated thunderstorms ahead of these bands are expected with
moisture flux increasing and weak surface convergence in place.
Thunderstorm activity will likely be minimal given limited
instability. While these bands are moving to the NW quickly, so
too are the trajectory of the showers, moving quickly to the west
embedded in these bands. This will hopefully limit the flooding
potential on the onset through this afternoon/evening, however
saturating the soil ahead of more rain to come.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Alberto dominates the forecast through the short-term forecast
period. Medium-range models in surprisingly good agreement
considering the tropical nature of this system. Official forecast
track as well as model forecast tracks keep the main wind impacts of
Alberto west of the forecast area. Will see winds ramping up over
the next 36 hours, but do not see speeds even approaching Wind
Advisory criteria through the next 36 hours.

Will begin seeing waves of precipitation spreading north by later
today. Current forecast rainfall amounts over the next 36 hours are
not expected to average high enough right now for a Flood/Flash
Flood Watch, although localized areas of heavier rain may cause
localized flooding considering the wet soils across the area. Will
need to keep a close eye on how precipitation develops and persists.

Due to the tropical nature of the atmosphere, instability remains
somewhat limited the next couple of days. However, with the
orientation of the forecast area to the right of the tropical low,
there does exist some potential for rotation in the cells within the
tropical bands, especially as we get into the overnight period into
Monday.

20

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Alberto will be the main story for the long term into Wednesday
with much of the weather being determined by the track. At this
time, Alberto is expected to move North over AL Monday night and
Tuesday. This will limit the overall wind hazard. The main hazards
will be rainfall and flooding concerns along with Tropic Storm
tornado concerns. The time period for tornado concerns will be
Monday night and Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will become more diurnal in nature
Thursday through Saturday as an upper level trough moves across
the area on Thursday and getting into a NNW flow aloft for Friday
and Saturday with a little drier airmass.

BDL

HYDROLOGY...

2 to 5 inches of rainfall will be possible with locally higher
amounts. The time period for this rain is today through Wednesday.
The greatest amounts will favor N and W GA. A flash flood watch
may be needed in the future.

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Wide mixture of IFR to VFR conditions currently. Mainly MVFR by 15Z
with most areas back to predominately VFR by 18Z outside of any
areas of precipitation that develop and move north across the area.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR by late afternoon and IFR or lower by
06Z. Will see widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
spreading north across the area, especially after 21Z. Southeast
winds 3-6 kt through 14Z, increasing to 8-12kt and becoming more
easterly after 18Z. Will see gusts 17-20kt at times after 21Z as
well. Winds remain generally east 8-12kt through most of the
overnight period, increasing to 10-14kt w/ gusts 18-22kt by 12Z
Monday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on ceilings/visibilities through the forecast period and
timing of the better precipitation chances. High for wind.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  67  79  69 /  60  80  80  90
Atlanta         84  69  79  70 /  50  70  80  90
Blairsville     78  65  76  65 /  60  70  70  90
Cartersville    85  68  80  69 /  50  70  70  90
Columbus        85  70  81  71 /  70  70  80  90
Gainesville     83  67  78  68 /  50  80  80  90
Macon           81  70  80  71 /  70  70  80  80
Rome            85  68  80  69 /  50  70  70  90
Peachtree City  84  68  79  69 /  60  70  80  90
Vidalia         82  70  82  72 /  70  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



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