Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 190746
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...
Latest RAP40 analysis shows the high pres ridge that passed over FL
on Wed has merged with the Atlc ridge, forming a strong axis
extending from the nrn Bahamas into the ern GOMex. Lcl wind
profilers show a brisk 20-30KT srly flow acrs the peninsula...S/SE
at KMFL, veering to S/SW at KXMR/KTBW/KJAX. Airmass remains bone dry
with PWat values around 0.50", none of which is concentrated in any
one distinguishable lyr...RAP40 analysis shows avg dewpoint
depressions thru the H100-H85 lyr arnd 15C, and arnd 25c thru H85-
H50. Corresponding mean RH values show equally low moisture...AOB
40pct thru the H100-H70 lyr.

The ridge will remain the primary WX feature today...maintaining a
dry/stable airmass that will produce mostly sunny skies, while S/SW
winds and near full sun generate warm aftn temps in the M/U80s. Wrn
flank of the Atlc ridge will gradually drift into south FL as a
short wave trof pushing into the Deep South works its way toward the
ern seaboard. The short wave will drag a weak cold front into the FL
Panhandle by sunset, then thru central FL overnight. Moisture
pooling within the trof is quite low...max H100-H70 RH values AOB
70pct with little in the way of meaningful cloud cover. Prefrontal
airmass even drier with H100-H70 RH values AOB 50pct...fropa will be
dry. Light but steady W/SW flow thru late evng, bcmg N/NW overnight.
However, the nrly flow will not be strong enough nor its duration
long enough to generate a strong cold/dry air advection...min temps
near the fcst dewpoints...L/M60s.

Fri-Fri night...Tail end of frontal boundary drifting slowly over
peninsula with loss of much southward push by Fri. NE-ENE winds will
increase as the day wears on with high pressure area to the north
bridging the frontal boundary and wind surge working down the coast
by Fri evening. Cloudiness and moisture convergence will also
increase with the onshore flow becoming persistent. Added a low
mentionable PoP for northern coastal sections starting Fri afternoon
then low PoPs across all coastal sections with slightly higher
values shifting south Fri night.  Increase in cloudiness and onshore
flow will help hold max temps in the mid 70s immediate Volusia Co
coast...with upper 70s/lower 80s remainder of the coast, with low-
mid 80s inland. Overnight Lows Fri night in low/mid 60s...upper 60s
to around 70 immediate Space and Treasure Coasts.

Sat-Mon...Wx pattern will be unsettled with increasing rain chances
through the weekend and into at least the early part of next week.
Latest model runs in reasonable agreement that the low level flow
will veer from easterly on Sat toward the SE-S Sunday into Monday
ahead of low pressure area over the deep south. This would favor a
persistent increase in moisture, with rain chances gradually
increasing from 20-40 percent Sat to 50-60 percent with a few
embedded thunderstorms for Sun/Mon with rising moisture and cooler
mid level temps. Clouds and rain chances expected to hold maxes in
the upper 70s to lower 80s...except mid 70s Coastal Volusia Co.

Tue-Wed...GFS still trending faster with low pressure area to the
north pushing a trailing a front through with drier conditions
through the local area while the ECMWF hangs on to moisture longer
into the mid week. For now, will keep chance PoPs in all areas for
Tues then indicate low PoPs across southern sections only on Wed.
Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast and low/mid 80s
inland. Lows generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 20/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 19/12Z...S/SW 4-7KTS. Btwn 19/12Z-19/15Z...bcmg W/SW
8-12KTS. Btwn 19/17Z-19/20Z...coastal sites S of KTIX bcmg S/SE 8-
12KTS. Btwn 20/00Z-20/03Z...bcmg S/SW 4-7KTS. Btwn 20/03Z-20/06Z
bcmg W/NW 3-6KTS. Btwn 20/06Z-20/09Z...N of KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NW 4-
7KTS. Btwn 20/09Z-20/12Z...S of KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NW 4-7KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: VFR all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Atlc hi pres extending from the nrn Bahamas into the
ern GOMex will generate a gentle to moderate S/SW breeze thru
midday...bcmg S/SE near the coast in the aftn south of Cape
Canaveral as the east coast sea breeze dvlps. Weak cold front will
push thru central FL overnight, forcing winds to veering to a
northerly component areawide by daybreak. Winds bcmg a moderate to
fresh N/NE breeze from Cape Canaveral northward, gentle to moderate
N/NW breeze south of the Cape.  Seas 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT
offshore, largely due to a NErly swell. Dominant pds btwn 8-9sec,
decreasing to 4-6sec off the Volusia Co. coast in the predawn hrs
as winds freshen out of the N/NE.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions deteriorating Friday with an E-ENE wind
surge near 20 knots working down the waters, with seas building up
to 7-8 feet offshore by early Sat. Boating conditions will remain
poor to hazardous the remainder of the weekend into early next week
with strong high pressure keeping the gradient tight. Winds will be
15-20 kt from the east Sat and veer toward SE-S Sunday into Mon.
Chances for showers develop over the waters by late Fri into Sat,
with showers and a few storms for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WX...
Dry air will remain over central FL today, though S/SE sfc flow near
the coast will gradually modify the low sfc dewpoints. Min RH values
over the interior will drop to 30-35pct for 3-5hrs this aftn. Min RH
over the coastal regions btwn 40-50pct.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  65  73  64 /   0   0  20  10
MCO  88  65  83  64 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  85  65  79  69 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  85  65  82  69 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  86  63  79  62 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  88  65  79  63 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  88  66  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  84  64  82  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Glitto


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