


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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773 FXUS64 KOHX 182340 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 640 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will continue for the foreseeable future. - The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any storm. - It`ll be hot and humid each afternoon with Heat Index values above 100 in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau -- even hotter next week! && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 We are seeing quite a few scattered thunderstorms across the area early this evening. This scattered activity will continue for the next few hours but will gradually diminish after the sunset. Heavy rain will be the main threat with any thunderstorms and can`t rule out localized flash flooding. Otherwise the severe threat is low but maybe some gusty winds with any of the stronger cells. Mainly dry conditions by midnight. It will be mild and humid overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through tonight) Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 An extremely stagnant weather pattern persists across Middle TN -- so much so that visible satellite and surface observations look almost identical to this time yesterday. Temperatures at this hour are just below yesterday`s curve, so I think we`re good without the Heat Advisory. However, the differential heating that will result from the obvious boundary blanketed across the mid-state is likely to once again spark showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening hours. Looking over CAMs and NBM guidance, there seems to be a continuity between the two suggesting our northwest quadrant (north of I-40 and west of I-65) as the favored area for heavy rain today. This is not to say that other areas won`t see rain, but the stronger QPF signals are coming from this area. HREF data suggests 50-70% chance for greater than 1 inch and at least a 10% chance of 3+ inches. For this reason, interests in this part of the mid-state will want to monitor our social media channels and the radar as environmental conditions still present a concern for heavy rainfall over a short period of time potentially leading to localized flooding. Gusty winds and lots of lightning will also be hazards this afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor plans, please remain weather aware. Storms should wane prior to 9 pm and those who see rain will likely deal with patchy fog in the morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 I`m inclined to pull up yesterday`s AFD to copy and paste the rest of the discussion. It hasn`t changed a lick. Low triple digit heat index values, along with low to medium diurnal thunderstorm chances each afternoon. Heard that before? Extended guidance also remains consistent. Upper level ridging is expected to start exerting itself over the region Monday into Tuesday and for the rest of the week, the resultant temperatures will be mid to upper 90s -- on the mercury -- west of the Cumberland Plateau. Heat Index values that are being spit out during this time frame surpass 110 degrees in several areas which means we may very well surpass Heat Advisory conditions and climb right into that Excessive Heat territory for the second half of next week. This should reduce thunderstorm coverage each day, but not eliminate it all together. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the area early this evening will mostly dissipate by 04Z with very low probability for impacts at terminals. Where storms occur, very heavy downpours will be the main feature. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through this evening with light southwest winds MVFR cigs and vsbys (low clouds and patchy fog) will develop after 08Z then improve again to VFR around 16Z. Scattered thunderstorms will develop area-wide Saturday afternoon and early evening. Prob30 has been included for all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 91 76 95 / 60 60 30 40 Clarksville 75 90 77 93 / 60 50 20 30 Crossville 69 84 70 88 / 30 70 40 60 Columbia 73 89 74 93 / 30 60 20 40 Cookeville 72 85 72 89 / 40 60 50 60 Jamestown 70 84 71 87 / 40 60 40 70 Lawrenceburg 73 87 72 91 / 30 60 20 40 Murfreesboro 74 90 74 94 / 30 70 30 50 Waverly 73 89 74 92 / 40 50 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....13