Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018



For the 06z TAFs:

Conditions will worsen tonight as ceilings lower and rain showers
become more widespread. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
weak with occasional lightning being the main threat. Late in the
morning IFR or MVFR ceilings should either break or rise to at
least the high-end of MVFR if not VFR. Rain will move out of
northern portions of the area by mid morning and out of the entire
area by early afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 841 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/


We completed a minor update to add a little more temporal value
to PoP/Wx based on trends. Diurnally driven convection in the low
rolling plains of west Texas is approaching our far southwest
counties. A near-term threat of strong wind gusts given high cloud
bases and deeply mixed boundary layer should wane as the boundary
layer stabilizes and the cold front overtakes the convection.
Small hail may be possible in the strongest updrafts over the next
couple of hours but weak instability should limit a more
substantial threat.

Later tonight, fairly widespread precipitation is still expected
as ascent from approaching mid-level low increases and moistening
continues. Short term model forecast soundings show enough
elevated instability from parcels originating around or just above
700 mb for some weak thunderstorms tonight, with probably no more
than occasional lightning.

No severe weather is expected, especially once the storm with
some mid level rotation near Guthrie diminishes. But as mentioned
above, a strong to near severe gust could still occur over the
next hour or two with the Guthrie cell as it moves into Knox


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/


For the 00z TAFs:

Deteriorating conditions are expected this evening as a cold front
moves through bringing stronger northerly winds, lower ceilings,
and rainfall to most sites. Lingering low MVFR to IFR ceilings
tomorrow morning should diminish with a return to VFR conditions
by midday. Rain could linger across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas until early afternoon.

Thunder was mentioned for TAF sites near and south of I-40 where
minimal instability will exist. Thunderstorm impacts should be
limited to occasional lightning. If convective showers or
thunderstorms can form this evening ahead of the front near
Wichita Falls, gusty/erratic winds may be associated with them.
To cover this, we have included a TEMPO group with thunder and
variable winds, but confidence is not particularly high that this
will occur.

There is a small probability of ceilings from stratocumulus forming
again tomorrow afternoon over north-central Oklahoma into eastern
Oklahoma and there could be some light convective showers during
the afternoon. This could impact Ponca City airport.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

Cold front has moved into northwest parts of the fa this
afternoon. This boundary will continue to move across the region
through this evening. Meanwhile, upper wave will continue to move
SE across the central Rockies/central Plains into NE OK by
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Models show a small area of storms developing over West Texas late
this afternoon/early evening that moves east into parts of western
north Texas later this evening. A few of these storms could be
strong to severe with strong wind gusts the primary concern
although some large hail may also be possible.

More widespread showers and some storms will begin in NW parts of
the fa and spread S/SE this evening/overnight as lift associated
with the upper system and cold front move into the fa. The rain
will continue into Wednesday but gradually end from NW to SE
Wednesday afternoon. No organized severe weather is expected

Another wave will quickly follow on the heals of this current
upper system affecting the region Thursday/Thursday night causing
another cold front to move across the area. This will also bring
another chance for some showers and storms Thursday night to
eastern portions of the fa but rain chances and amounts will be
low with this system. Models also show more rain chances early
next week but with differences in the models, etc. there are some
uncertainties on when/where.

With the cooler temperatures moving in behind the cold front,
rain, and clouds, Wednesday temperatures will be cool with highs
in the 50s and low 60s. After tomorrow, temperatures will slowly
warm through the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s by Monday.


Oklahoma City OK  79  49  59  42 /  10  70  90  10
Hobart OK         77  47  62  40 /  20  70  80  10
Wichita Falls TX  81  49  61  42 /  10  80  70  10
Gage OK           71  42  60  39 /  20  90  50  10
Ponca City OK     78  46  56  42 /  10  80  80  10
Durant OK         79  54  58  44 /   0  20  70  20




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