Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 240618

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


A progressive upper pattern is forecast across the central and
eastern CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday. One upper trough/low over the
central Plains Wednesday morning should continue moving
southeastward to the lower MS Valley by the end of the period.
Another upper trough will likely develop southeastward from the
Canadian Prairie provinces to the northern Plains. Upper ridging
should remain over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move southeastward across the northern Plains in
tandem with the upper trough. Dry/warm conditions will persist for
parts of the Southwest and Great Basin Wednesday afternoon, but weak
surface winds will preclude any elevated/critical concerns across
these areas.

...Portions of the Northern Plains...
The surface pressure gradient should strengthen slightly ahead of
the cold front mentioned previously across parts of the northern
Plains Wednesday afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds may
also support some increase in surface winds across this region. Most
short-term guidance indicated sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20
mph should occur ahead of the front, mainly across parts of the
Dakotas into northwestern MN. Given little prospect for substantial
low-level moisture return, RH values may become lowered near 25% for
a few hours Wednesday afternoon on a brief/isolated basis. However,
fuels may not be overly receptive for parts of this region due to
ongoing light to moderate precipitation moving eastward across the
northern Plains on Day 1/Tuesday. Overall, the meteorological
conditions and fuels appear too borderline to justify the
introduction of an elevated area at this time.

..Gleason.. 04/24/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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