054
FXUS63 KDLH 191130
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, dry, and breezy with near-critical fire weather  conditions
today through Wednesday, mainly for parts of   northeast Minnesota

- Rain returns to locations south of US 2 tonight through Wednesday,
with 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rainfall in the Brainerd  Lakes region.

- Warming temperatures through the week, with another chance of
light rain early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Upper level ridge axis extends northward through the Mississippi
River Valley this morning, with a shortwave pivoting northeastward
through the Central Plains. At the surface, high pressure is
centered near Hudson Bay and pushing eastward.
Low level easterly flow on the southern end of the surface high is
noted on area observations. This flow over western Lake Superior has
provided just enough uplift for some patchy drizzle over portions of
northeast MN. Will keep a 10 pop for a mention of drizzle in through
12-13Z. Easterly flow also provided a stratus deck that, despite
cold advection, has prevented temperatures from cooling as rapidly
as expected. Still think low 30s are possible with a few locations
in the upper 20s, so will maintain the current freeze warning.

Easterly winds increase today as the gradient between the surface
high to our northeast and the low pressure system to our southwest
tightens, with strong breezes through Tuesday. Winds will be
strongest near the shore and at the head of the lake. This will also
keep temperatures near the lake cooler than inland locations. Highs
will be in the 40s to lower 50s near the lake, increasing to the
lower 60s further across far north central Mn and northwest WI.

Rain associated with the low pressure system to our south will graze
southern locations, mainly south of US 2, beginning tonight through
Wednesday. Better dynamics and lift will remain to our south, and
deep layer of dry air extending southward from Canada over the Great
Lakes will prevent moisture from advecting northward. Drier air will
allow min RHs to drop below 25 percent across northeast MN each
afternoon through Thursday and with strong easterly winds, near
critical fire weather conditions are possible.

Temperatures warm through the week, with mid 50s along the immediate
shoreline and 60s elsewhere by Friday. The next organized chance of
rain comes in early next week, with another low pressure system that
moves across the mid Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

High clouds have spread across the area from the southwest this
morning. Underneath that deck are MVFR/IFR cigs that has pushed
westward across the area overnight. These cigs have persisted at
BRD and DLH. Looking at the window near DLH, can see patches of
blue sky, as low clouds stream from southeast to northwest,
with what appears to be a couple of clouds decks at MVFR
heights.

Lower cigs will improve through the morning as easterly winds
increase. Wind speeds today will be at 12-20kts with gusts up
30kts. Expect winds to be slightly stronger at DLH with the
influences of stronger winds off western Lake Superior. Winds
diminish only slightly this evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

An extended period of gusty east to northeast winds is expected
through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories go into effect early this
morning, then gale warnings around the head of the lake into the
Outer Apostle islands by mid morning as winds gust up to 35-40 kt.
Waves increase up to the 7-10 ft range around the head of the lake
as well. Gale force winds will briefly lessen Monday night, but then
even stronger winds and greater wave heights are expected on
Tuesday. Headlines have been extended into Tuesday, with a Gale
Watch for all zones. While gales may diminish again around Tuesday
evening and night, blustery northeast winds will persist on
Wednesday before finally winds decrease Wednesday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-034>038.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-147.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Tuesday for LSZ143>146-148-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148-
     150.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA