000
FXUS63 KDLH 161724
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

A cold front moving through the Northland Sunday and Monday is the
main event for weather this week.

High pressure will be near the Northland today through Saturday
night with quiet weather. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies in the
day, and mostly clear to partly cloudy at night.

An elongated area of low pressure and its associated cold front will
move through northeast Minnesota Sunday. A dry airmass ahead of the
front will keep east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin dry.
Behind the front, rain is forecast initially as the thermal profile
and surface temps are warm. Some snow will will begin to mix in late
in the afternoon, especially along the international border. This is
supported by the SREF and GEFS ensembles and model soundings, as
colder air begins to infiltrate the thermal profile.

The surface low moves over Lake Superior Sunday night while the cold
front moves through northwest Wisconsin. Rain over northwest
Wisconsin initially, mixes with, then changes to all snow through
the night. Mainly a rain/snow mix in northeast Minnesota early, then
becoming all snow. Some light accumulation is possible, with the
Arrowhead seeing the best opportunity for accumulation.

The cold front departs on Monday as the surface low moves into
Ontario. Some model differences on the timing of the departure and
its affect on the pops/weather over the area, even the ensembles are
in disagreement. Will linger some pops which is supported by the
NBM. The precipitation will be all snow in the morning, mixing with,
or changing to rain in the afternoon, then ending from west to east
late.

High pressure settles over the Northland Monday night and Tuesday.
However, a short wave trof drops through the area Tuesday afternoon.
A few showers may be generated in northeast Minnesota, but the
atmosphere is fairly dry and will limit any amounts. Dry conditions
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021


VFR conditions throughout with northerly winds. A few mid level
cloud are possible today. Later tonight there will be a weak trough
that moves trough and could bring more widespread cloud cover, but
cloud bases are expected to be at or above above 4000 to 5000 ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

No hazardous marine conditions over the next 48 hours with high
pressure nearby. Light and variable winds will become northwest
Saturday night. Waves will be less than 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  33  53  33 /   0  10   0   0
INL  50  26  53  31 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  53  34  54  34 /   0  10   0   0
HYR  54  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  50  29  52  32 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO DLH
DISCUSSION...GSF
AVIATION...WFO DLH
MARINE...GSF