


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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054 FXUS63 KDLH 191130 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool, dry, and breezy with near-critical fire weather conditions today through Wednesday, mainly for parts of northeast Minnesota - Rain returns to locations south of US 2 tonight through Wednesday, with 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rainfall in the Brainerd Lakes region. - Warming temperatures through the week, with another chance of light rain early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Upper level ridge axis extends northward through the Mississippi River Valley this morning, with a shortwave pivoting northeastward through the Central Plains. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Hudson Bay and pushing eastward. Low level easterly flow on the southern end of the surface high is noted on area observations. This flow over western Lake Superior has provided just enough uplift for some patchy drizzle over portions of northeast MN. Will keep a 10 pop for a mention of drizzle in through 12-13Z. Easterly flow also provided a stratus deck that, despite cold advection, has prevented temperatures from cooling as rapidly as expected. Still think low 30s are possible with a few locations in the upper 20s, so will maintain the current freeze warning. Easterly winds increase today as the gradient between the surface high to our northeast and the low pressure system to our southwest tightens, with strong breezes through Tuesday. Winds will be strongest near the shore and at the head of the lake. This will also keep temperatures near the lake cooler than inland locations. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s near the lake, increasing to the lower 60s further across far north central Mn and northwest WI. Rain associated with the low pressure system to our south will graze southern locations, mainly south of US 2, beginning tonight through Wednesday. Better dynamics and lift will remain to our south, and deep layer of dry air extending southward from Canada over the Great Lakes will prevent moisture from advecting northward. Drier air will allow min RHs to drop below 25 percent across northeast MN each afternoon through Thursday and with strong easterly winds, near critical fire weather conditions are possible. Temperatures warm through the week, with mid 50s along the immediate shoreline and 60s elsewhere by Friday. The next organized chance of rain comes in early next week, with another low pressure system that moves across the mid Mississippi River Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 High clouds have spread across the area from the southwest this morning. Underneath that deck are MVFR/IFR cigs that has pushed westward across the area overnight. These cigs have persisted at BRD and DLH. Looking at the window near DLH, can see patches of blue sky, as low clouds stream from southeast to northwest, with what appears to be a couple of clouds decks at MVFR heights. Lower cigs will improve through the morning as easterly winds increase. Wind speeds today will be at 12-20kts with gusts up 30kts. Expect winds to be slightly stronger at DLH with the influences of stronger winds off western Lake Superior. Winds diminish only slightly this evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 An extended period of gusty east to northeast winds is expected through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories go into effect early this morning, then gale warnings around the head of the lake into the Outer Apostle islands by mid morning as winds gust up to 35-40 kt. Waves increase up to the 7-10 ft range around the head of the lake as well. Gale force winds will briefly lessen Monday night, but then even stronger winds and greater wave heights are expected on Tuesday. Headlines have been extended into Tuesday, with a Gale Watch for all zones. While gales may diminish again around Tuesday evening and night, blustery northeast winds will persist on Wednesday before finally winds decrease Wednesday evening. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-034>038. WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-147. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ121-140>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ143>146. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ143>146-148-150. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>146. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...HA MARINE...HA