Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Summary: Critical and near critical fire weather conditions
continue across the Northland into this evening, and are likely
again Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of thunderstorms
builds from west to east beginning Monday night, but especially
over the much of the region Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Scattered thunderstorm chances then last into Friday.

A lake breeze can be seen on the KDLH radar moving onshore into
typical parts of northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota, and
bringing a cool down to those locations after temperatures have
hit another day of around 80 by mid-afternoon. These of course are
all thanks the continuous ridge centered over the Great Lakes and
all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard. The extremely dry air mass
under this ridge has combined with the warm temperatures to bottom
out afternoon relative humidity down to 13% so far via surface
observations in far northeast Minnesota. With winds to 15 mph and
the continued dry fuels, per local land agencies, the Red Flag
Warning for all of north-central and parts of northeast Minnesota
covering today remains in effect.

A slight uptick in dewpoints from more southerly return flow lifts
into the Brainerd Lakes area and locations further west
overnight. This should help to decrease concerns there down to
only near-critical fire weather conditions Monday, but locations
further northward are expected to still see the current dry air
hang around one more day. The enhanced gradient over the ND/MN
stateline area today also moves into the Northland by tomorrow
afternoon to allow for increased southerly wind speeds. These
conditions prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for
Itasca to central St. Louis and the interior Arrowhead northward
to be issued covering Monday afternoon and evening for the third
day of critical fire weather conditions.

As the ridge breaks down and shifts out of the Upper Great Lakes
Monday night, much more moist air associated with a boundary that
has been stalled over the northern Plains the last few days moves
into our area. This brings the first chances of rain showers and
thunderstorms for quite sometime that work west to east Monday
night into Tuesday. Forecast model soundings indicated PWATs
increasing to 1.25-1.5 inches by Tuesday afternoon for central
Minnesota. A high CAPE environment with minimal organized shear
aids in at least some confidence for high precipitation
thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon and evening under diurnal
conditions as a shortwave lifts into the region and may provide
some additional forcing. The area with the highest potential for
heavy rain Tuesday PM is highlighted well in the WPC Marginal
Risk as well. Off and on rounds of thunderstorms then last into
Friday, much of it being a similar high CAPE and minimal shear
environment depending at least partially on daytime heating.

This pattern then may shut off next weekend again with high
pressure potentially again setting up over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Light winds tonight
are expected to increase throughout the day tomorrow, with highest
gusts near BRD. Thunderstorms are possible later tomorrow evening
and will start to be included in the TAFs on the next issuance.


Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Light east to northeast winds under 15 knots continue over the
lake this afternoon. The diurnal winds drop off after sunset and
will lessen wave heights, which may reach 2 feet early this
evening by late this evening. Continued high pressure will keep a
similar pattern in place for Monday, albeit the sustained winds at
the head of the lake may be a bit stronger tomorrow afternoon. The
first chance at thunderstorms in a while builds over western Lake
Superior by Tuesday afternoon.


DLH  49  77  50  77 /   0   0  10  50
INL  56  84  59  80 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  55  84  59  82 /   0   0  40  80
HYR  50  82  53  86 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  48  79  52  83 /   0   0   0  20


MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MNZ010>012-018-019-026.



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