000
FXUS63 KDLH 221149
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
549 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

A fairly pleasant and warm day on tap with increasing clouds as a
system approaches from the southwest today and eventually will
drive snow and freezing drizzle through the forecast area tonight.
Current thinking is snow will enter the Brainerd Lakes area
around 6 PM Fri. and will be widespread across the forecast area
by midnight. Models are largely in agreement on the QPF amounts
with this system, but each run has been fluctuating on the QPF
maximum location - shifting eastward. So, overall went with more
of a broadbrush on QPF which will result in diminished snowfall
amounts spread over a large area. Due to this, as this system
evolves, a winter weather advisory may be needed. For now, covered
the threat with an SPS. This forecast is for 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall with some 0.01 to 0.10" of freezing drizzle. Presence of
ice is the limiting factor in precip type as soundings are not the
classic freezing rain/drizzle variety; instead just a broad/deep
saturated layer in the vcnty of -10 C. Forcing is caused by weak
lift caused by a right entrance region of an upper level jet and
PVA atop a baroclinic zone with low-level convergence from a
nocturnal LLJ. Transient frontogenetic forcing may also assist in
precip production. Ultimately, there are some decent factors in
place to support a little extra snow than what the current
forecast suggests, but the lack of an organized surface low or
rather a ridge of high pressure does have me a little skeptical on
realizing the potential with many factors in play. Thus, a little
lower confidence than normal for the system tonight.

A strongly forced system will begin to move into the area Saturday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

The extended period will feature a strong winter storm that will
affect much of the Northland in some way Saturday night into
Sunday. Colder temperatures will follow this storm then possibly
another round of light snow Tuesday/Tuesday night.

The models are in pretty good agreement moving an area of low
pressure from near the Iowa/Missouri border at 00Z Sunday to the
eastern Upper Peninsula/northern Lake Michigan area by 12Z Sunday.
The surface low will deepen around 15MB during this 12 hour period
and 500MB height falls around 300M will pass just to the southeast
of our northwest Wisconsin counties so there will be strong forcing.
Strong upper level divergence will occur as the area will be in a
coupled jet structure with a 135 knot jet into Ohio and eastern
Great Lakes and a weaker jet from northwest Ontario into Hudson Bay.
Plenty of moisture will be present as well with the gulf open. We
will issue a Winter Storm Watch for much of northwest Wisconsin and
the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The ECMWF is most bullish on snow for
the Arrowhead so we will include that area in the watch as well. We
feel confident parts of northwest Wisconsin, especially
Price/Sawyer/Ashland/Iron Counties will see a period of heavy snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning. There could be a period freezing
drizzle across much of the Northland Saturday evening before the
better forcing and deeper saturation arrive. The biggest threat from
the storm will be snow rather than freezing drizzle/rain. Snowfall
totals of a foot can`t be ruled out over parts of northwest
Wisconsin. The snow will diminish through the day Sunday as the low
is moving at a good clip with strong winds developing in it`s wake.
Gusts of 30 mph to around 40 mph will be possible Sunday/Sunday
evening, with some higher around Lake Superior. This will cause
blowing and drifting even after the snow subsides.

Colder air will move in behind the low Sunday night into Monday and
Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed Sunday night/Monday
morning. High temperatures Monday will only be from 5 to 10 degrees.

The GFS continues to show a clipper system bringing a few inches of
snow to parts of the Northland Tuesday/Tuesday night but the ECMWF
is largely dry. We have a chance for snow going as the Canadian also
shows snow during that period. Most of the rest of the period will
be relatively quiet with no big storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Weak high pressure was over much of the region this morning but
will be replaced by an inverted trough later tonight into
Saturday. There will also be a shortwave and warm air advection
tonight into Saturday that will provide lift. Conditions varied
widely this morning with an area of IFR/LIFR ceilings from near
Walker to the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin advancing
northeast. Other MVFR ceilings existed from the Iron Range into
the Arrowhead with pockets of VFR occurring as well. We expect
these IFR/LIFR ceilings to continue northeast this morning but
then for them to gradually scour out or continue northeast leading
to a period of VFR at most TAF sites for a time today. Ceilings
will then lower later today into tonight to MVFR and snow will
develop sending the visibility to IFR/LIFR. There could be some
freezing drizzle in spots as well and later updates may include a
mention at some of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  23  31  22 /  10  90  50  70
INL  24  18  32  18 /   0  70  70  60
BRD  23  22  31  16 /  40  90  50  50
HYR  29  24  35  24 /   0  90  60  80
ASX  30  24  34  24 /   0  80  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for WIZ001>004-007>009.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for MNZ012-020-021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde