000
FXUS63 KDLH 231151
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
651 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

A cold front was moving through the Northland early this morning and
it will move just south of or near our southern zones by 12Z. Strong
east to northeast winds were developing over and close to Lake
Superior behind the front with KDYT gusting to 35 mph and KDLH to 25
mph. The stronger winds will continue through the day with gusts
close to the lake of 30 to near 40 mph. Stronger forcing, largely
due to low level FGEN, was occurring along the International Border
this morning and the models are doing a decent job depicting that.
The FGEN will gradually weaken today and shift northeast as an area
of low pressure moves toward the region and southerly 850mb winds
develop. We have just rain going at this time in far northern
Minnesota but it is certainly possible for some snow to mix in with
the rain through mid morning, especially in higher terrain areas of
the Arrowhead.

The strong onshore flow may lead to areas of light rain or drizzle
along the North Shore down into the southwest arm of Lake Superior
today into this evening. Several models depict this scenario and we
kept higher POPs and a mention of fog in those areas, especially the
higher terrain. Temperatures today will vary greatly with middle
sixties from the Brainerd Lakes east to Hayward and Park Falls and
lower to middle forties along the International Border and
Arrowhead.

The frontal boundary will return north tonight as southerly winds
increase and an area of low pressure moves into Northern Plains.
There will be a chance for light rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms over portions of northern Minnesota tonight. The front
will continue to move east on Monday making it to far eastern
Minnesota by 00Z Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over much of northern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin. Highs
will be in the sixties over much of the area with only upper fifties
toward International Falls.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

An active weather pattern through the work week and into next
weekend with numerous chances for rain and cooler than normal
temperatures.

On the synoptic scale a broad longwave trough at mid/upper levels
will occasionally deepen and weaken across the northern Great Plains
and Upper Great Lakes, with a number of weak disturbances in the
flow producing the broad-scale lift needed for occasional rain
showers. Clouds will keep temperatures from falling into the 20s
most nights, but overall temperatures will be cooler than normal
with lows in the 30s to low 40s most nights.

Tuesday and Tuesday night a few light rain showers are possible
along and ahead of a secondary cold front tracking from west to east
across the region, but then Wednesday during the day looks mainly
dry as a broad surface high builds over the central Great Plains
east towards the Midwest, though there will be some low/mid level
moisture in place resulting in cloudy skies.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be the best chance for rainfall
as a potent mid-level shortwave trough dives south from central
Saskatchewan Wednesday towards northwest Minnesota Thursday with a
resultant surface low deepening in southern Manitoba. Rain will
develop along and ahead of the associated cold front, with light
rain chances lingering into Friday as the low tracks east north of
Lake Superior. Low chance for clipper-like mid-level disturbance to
bring a chance for rain late Friday into Saturday, but trending
drier over next weekend as high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail at most sites through the TAF
period due to strong easterly winds along and behind a cold front
across northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin today and
tonight. Along the north shore locally lower ceilings and
occasional drizzle or showers are possible, impacting DLH with
LIFR conditions for much of the TAF period. Exception to these
conditions will be BRD where VFR conditions will prevail through
most of the period and HYR where some improvement is expected by
the afternoon. East winds 10 to 15 knots through the day and into
the evening with gusts approaching 30 kts at DLH today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  50  66  45 /  50  20  60  60
INL  43  41  58  41 /  30  70  80  20
BRD  65  55  65  44 /   0  30  70  20
HYR  65  53  71  48 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  57  52  72  49 /  20  10  20  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     146>148.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>145.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM