Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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022 FXUS63 KFGF 010023 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 723 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms in west central MN thru 02z. - Next rain is Thursday, amounts 0.25 to 0.75 inch. && .UPDATE... Issued at 717 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 500 mb short wave is well defined and along the SD/MN border between Sioux Falls and Watertown moving northeast. To the north is the area of rain showers spreading north thru E ND and NW MN. 500 mb short wave trough exists from main upper low in southern Alberta thru south central ND to that short wave/vort moving into MN. Surface trough located along this path as well. This entire area of moisture is moving north- northeast. MU CAPES in the 1000 j/kg south of the area along the SD/MN border and in that area some sun occurred late in the day and temps near 60 and just enough instability for a few storms to form. They are moving not into WC MN lakes country. Not strong by any means but enough for some rumbles of thunder. Rain amounts thru 00z in the 0.25 to 0.60 inch range thru the mid/south RRV and into MN lakes country. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Surface analysis indicates a weak surface low over the Dakotas, but weakening thanks to a much faster deepening low over the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow for the bulk of an unstable warm sector to be isolated away from our area. However, lower level theta- e advection may get far enough north to scrape our far southern portions of the CWA. At this time, this appears to be a very low likelihood as clearing is significantly limited thanks to the broad swath of cloud cover across the Dakotas and given the 250mb jet max is isolated well to the south of the area keeping the surface low in South Dakota. Still, some elevated instability may provide a brief risk for hail and low risk (20% chance) for thunderstorms. For this reason, do not expect severe weather to develop later this afternoon. Tomorrow will be drier as this system moves out. Relative humidity values will fall into the 30s tomorrow, but recent rains should limit the risk of fire spread. Additionally, wind speeds will remain fairly benign with sustained winds up to 15 knots. Additional rain chances will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, but the probability of widespread impacts is low. The remainder of the period will feature near normal temperatures with periodic chances for rain once again. Freezing temperatures may arise late this weekend but this will hinge on sub-synoptic scale things working out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 717 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A messy aviation forecast thru Wed AM. Mainly around how widespread will IFR or low end MVFR cigs get overnight across the area. Really uncertain and hesistated to drop sites in the RRV (GFK/FAR) to IFR ceilings but it may occur. This is as the sfc trough moves northeast and winds are light. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...Riddle