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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261027
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
627 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today with calm and dry conditions
expected. A warm front swings through the region Saturday through
Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend. Another frontal system pushes through the region early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

630 am update...
A cool start this morning with temperatures ranging in the mid
20s to low 30s. Minor changes were made to update temperatures
with current observation. Previous forecast remains on track at
this time

300 am update...
Surface high pressure is centered over our region this morning
with calm and dry conditions persisting for one more day. Upper
level ridge aloft moves into our region allowing for southerly
flow to return. Under this pattern temperatures will climb into
the upper 50s to low 60s with plenty of sunshine. High pressure
shifts eastwards overnight with clouds beginning to fill in from
the east ahead of a warm front. With calm and mostly clear
skies persisting for most of the night, lows will fall into the
mid 30s to low 40s.

Precipitation chances begin to gradually increase Saturday morning
with rain showers becoming more likely in the afternoon. Most model
guidance show showers holding off until the afternoon with dry air
in place for the morning. Used a blend of recent CAM models to work
out the timing of these showers. Rainfall amounts will be light;
less than a tenth of an inch. Despite dreary conditions southerly
flow will keep highs near average in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Steady rain showers will continue through the afternoon and
into the evening hours across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We look to be firmly in a warm sector Saturday night through Monday.
While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be
in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even
thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled
925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70`s Sunday and even
the low 80`s Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low
temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 Sunday night. The
GFS has been giving the hint of the warm front becoming a backdoor
cold front offering a cooler and showier outcome, till other model
support is present will not trend the forecast in this
direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around
500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In
terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is
modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may
lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a
gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front
can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor
for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to
monitor over the next several days. Overall, the trend is
slightly weaker for these thunderstorms compared to yesterday.

Overall this front is trending weaker as well not really bringing in
much in the way of a cooling trend till the next front moves through
on Thursday. With this slower solution, a few showers and
thunderstorms remain possible through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
Light and variable winds transition south/southeast late morning
remaining under 10 knots for the entire period.


Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES