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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260512
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
112 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control with dry weather through
Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below
freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves
through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Quiet and calm conditions continue tonight with temperatures
starting to fall. Updated temperatures using a blend of current
observations and the forecast.

7 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control and the forecast is on-track.
No changes needed at this time.

130 pm update...

A large surface remains in control this period as it moves
southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the
coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and
dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the
northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered
over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and
light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into
Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear
days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday
night.

With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall
tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday
afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly
in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures
rising to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update

No significant changes to the short term with this update. A
line of showers still looks to push through the area on
Saturday, weakening as it moves east into a drier airmass.
Rainfall amounts will be light; less than a tenth of an inch.
Any filtered sun in the morning gives way to mainly cloudy skies
for the afternoon and evening. Highs are near average in the
upper 50s to mid-60s with a steady south wind 8-15 mph.

A warm front pushes through Saturday night, and model guidance
continues to show elevated instability moving in...this will
keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast overnight. Milder with lows in the 40s to low 50s as
south winds continue 5 to 15 mph.

Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday, but there will
be weak waves and instability around. The highest MLCAPE values
remain confined to areas west of I-81, where up to 500 J/Kg is
possible. Therefore, it will be partly sunny with scattered,
mainly afternoon thunderstorms around. Went above the
deterministic NBM, closer to the 50th percentile data...which
gives highs in the 70s to even around 80 in the deeper valleys
of the central southern tier region. The warm front continues to
lift north Sunday night, and there could be a few lingering
showers along it. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm
with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM Update

Monday will be the warmest day of the week, and of the spring
season so far. The forecast is trending drier, with more upper
level ridging and capping on Monday. Therefore, decided to again
go closer to the NBM 50th percentile for highs, as we are yet to
hit full green up and the increasing sunshine should boost
temperatures. Look for highs well into the 80s for most
locations...with perhaps some upper 70s in the higher elevations
of the Catskills still. Dew points reach the lower 60s, so it
will certainly feel quite warm to even hot out there in the
afternoon.

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around
1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In terms
of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to
be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to
thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty
wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have
a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any
strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over
the next several days.

Model guidance is showing a zonal to transient ridge pattern
over the area for midweek; this will keep things mainly dry, but
another frontal passage is possible either Wednesday or Thursday
depending on how the timing works out. Temperatures are trending
warmer, still well into the 70s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday...it looks to finally cool back down closer to climo
by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
Winds are light and variable overnight, with south easterly
flow returning tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...MJM/MWG
LONG TERM...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...ES/MPK/TAC