289
FXUS62 KCHS 031853
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
253 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The sea breeze is making good progress inland this afternoon
with cumulus slowly scouring out in its wake. The best chances
for showers/tstms for the remainder of the afternoon/evening
still looks to be centered across far interior Southeast
Georgia, roughly in the Millen-Reidsville corridor, where the
best 850 hPa theta-e pooling and mixed-layered instability will
occur. The risk for showers/tstms will persist for much of the
night across the interior where weak forcing associated with
several impulses moving across the Deep South into the western
Southeast U.S. will brush by to the northwest. Enough lingering
subtropical ridging aloft will hold along the coastal areas to
keep those areas dry overnight, but there are some signals that
a slight increase in the southerly could produce isolated
convection over the Charleston County coastal waters early
Saturday morning. Some of this could make a run for central and
upper Charleston County, but any such activity looks to remain
fairly brief and transient. No mentionable pops will be included
to cover this activity right now as probabilities for anything
measurable occurring are still very low. 20-30% pops were held
across the far interior for much of the night.

Conditions do not look ideal for significant fog development
overnight as mid/high-level clouds will be thickening with time.
Some low stratus will likely develop well inland which could
yield some patchy fog where localized stratus build-down
occurs. Widespread dense fog does not appear likely this morning
unlike the last two. Lows will range from the mid 60s well
inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline,
while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs
ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the
region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the
afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are
not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how
much instability will be in place.

High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the
weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast
Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low
temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal,
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high
pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of
any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by
Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory
levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
04/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: No major issues are expected. VFR conditions
will prevail. There are signals that some shallow fog and/or
status could impact KSAV early Saturday morning, but with
increasing mid-level clouds expected, conditions do not look
overly favorable for fog/stratus development at this time. This
will be monitored carefully, however. Any risk for
isolated/scattered shower/tstm impacts look to hold to the west
for all terminals this afternoon into tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will
average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the
local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign
conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the
southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as
the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3
ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$