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000
FXUS64 KCRP 231143
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
643 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An upper ridge gradually builds/subsidence increases over the
region during the period. PWAT values will remain slightly above
normal over the CWA during the period. Select NAM deterministic
soundings suggest a lowering of CIN values during the afternoon
hours today/Wednesday, yet the lack of sufficient lift, and the
building upper ridge, will preclude convective development. No
fire weather concerns since minimum relative humidity values will
remain elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday as feels-
like temperatures flirt around 100

An upper-level ridge will continue building into the region
Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday night, a series of mid-level
troughs will dig into the Four Corners region and traverse across
the Great Plains. This will eject several shortwaves across the
region late this week into this weekend. Despite the presence of the
shortwaves and elevated PWAT values, the lack of available lift
across the region with a strong cap will keep rain chances low below
20%.

The biggest story within the long term will be the warm
temperatures. Daytime highs late this work week will range from the
mid 80s near the coast to the mid 90s across the Brush Country. By
this weekend, daytime highs will flirt with the 100 degree mark
across the Brush Country while coastal areas climb into the mid to
upper 80s. When you combine the moisture across the region with the
warm temperatures, heat index values are expected to climb into the
upper 90s near the coast with areas within the Brush Country and
Coastal Plains have a low to medium chance of going over 100
degrees. Overnight lows this week and into this weekend will remain
mild with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A transition from a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings to
predominate MVFR late this morning/early afternoon. This
conditions will then persist for the remainder of the TAF period,
with IFR conditions possible during the 09-12z Wednesday period.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow today, becoming
predominately weak overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow over the coastal waters today
through Wednesday. Weak to moderate southeast flow Thursday is
expected to strengthen to over 20 knots Thursday and continue
impacting our local waters through Saturday. Winds are expected to
weaken back to more moderate levels Sunday into early next week.
With strong winds most of the week, there is a high chance for
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  71  86  72 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          80  68  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            84  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             81  68  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          80  72  83  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           83  70  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        81  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  73  83  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...WC/87