328
FXUS63 KDMX 141141
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
641 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and non-severe isolated storms are expected
  southeast today, eventually diminishing by late today.

- Lingering impacts into today from Canadian wildfire smoke
  filtering south into the area.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into
  Thursday. Severe risk is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Slow moving upper low continues to impact the state in the short
term with clouds and scattered showers/isolated storms across the
southeast early this morning.  These linger in the southeast during
the day although lift decreases with the gradual departure of the
low toward the lower Ohio River valley.  This should decrease the
coverage and intensity into the afternoon with the precipitation
ending this evening in the far south.  Meanwhile, on the north and
west periphery of the system some sunshine is expected today
including portions of the west and north where the warmest
temperatures are expected. Some lingering impacts from the
Canadian wildfire smoke are expected today, mainly from health
impacts and an AQA remains in effect during the day into this
evening.


Relatively quiet conditions are forecast overnight with light winds
as weak ridging slides across the state.  Some patchy fog may
develop across the southeast although some scattered cloudiness may
limit this potential.  A shortwave passes from the Plains into the
Midwest on Wednesday into Wednesday night with an associated
boundary.  Overall timing has slowed with this system with much of
Wednesday appearing to have little threat for precipitation until
more towards the evening.  Weak to moderate instability builds
across the west but shear is rather paltry, therefore the severe
threat appears somewhat limited at this time.  This boundary only
slowly progresses through the state and redevelopment by Thursday
afternoon is possible across the southeast prior to the departure of
the front.  Shear continues to be somewhat limited despite some
modest instability which once again should keep the severe threat
relatively low during this time.

The forecast after this time becomes a bit more uncertain given
increasing disparity among the medium range models.  Both GFS and
Euro have somewhat fast westerlies across the northern United States
but with some differences with the placement and timing of
shortwaves within the flow.  Overall, with the jet stream north of
the state this weekend, temperatures are expected to climb above
normal, particularly on Saturday.  Thereafter, the aforementioned
uncertainty begins to take over with regards to PoPs and
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

MVFR to local IFR conditions are expected in the southeast today
with scattered showers and isolated storms. VFR conditions are
expected in the north and west. Winds increase from the
northeast today and then diminish into tonight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil