Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 040901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
401 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

The main forecast concern was on temperatures and winds next week
with a few spotty rain chances Monday and late in the work week.
Thus, fairly quiet weather over the next week.

Today into Sunday...Stratus slowly clearing southward early this
morning with the northwest seeing some starry skies and
temperatures dropping about 10 degrees. TOA suggests the stratus
should clear the southern CWA by around 15-16z but may fizzle out
a bit sooner. At any rate, delayed the departure of the stratus
to match the current satellite trends and even the latest hires
model runs. Surface high pressure dominates the weather pattern
during the weekend with today the coolest day of the forecast
period. Models in good agreement with temperatures today and went
at or slightly above for maximum temperatures. Return flow
develops Sunday providing a warmer day with slightly mixing and
some high cirrus likely overhead.

Monday....weak shortwave embedded in the upper level ridge brings
some light rain chances and even a few rumbles of thunder on
Monday. Certainly some decent WAA and surface dew points warming
into middle to upper 50s through the day. Low confidence with the
maximum temperature forecast with the cloud cover, rain chances,
but any breaks in the cloud cover combined with the warm, moist
advection, can`t rule out temperatures warming into the 60s to
around 70. Leaned toward the warmer side of the models/blends as
not expecting any widespread rain Monday. The severe threat looks
near non-existent, but with the time of year and some instability
present, certainly cannot completely rule out a brief strong
storm in the afternoon Monday. There is a shortwave passing
through central and northern Minnesota Tuesday morning and this
may linger some cloud cover across the north but expect it to move
out with the dry advection and westerly flow.

Tuesday...warm enough to potentially break some record highs with
much of the central to southern portions of the forecast area
looking to rise to around 80. Yes 80! Most of the records for
April 7th are on the lower side, so thus some low hanging fruit
for breaking records. For the setup, good westerly dry
flow/downslope through the afternoon hours. 850mb temperatures
warm to +18C to +20C across the west and with winds mixing to at
least 900mb, confident in the maximum temperatures forecast

Wednesday through Friday...Cold front through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday providing below normal temperatures
by the end of the week. Low confidence with precipitation chances
as ECMWF remains relatively dry while the GFS is more bullish
with the QPF with the fropa Wednesday night.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

The MVFR stratus will continue to clear out from northwest to
southeast over the next several hours and should depart the last
TAF site KOTM around 13z. Northwest wind will gradually diminish
and become more north to northeast during the day Saturday as high
pressure arrives.





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