Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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807 FXUS63 KEAX 060545 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for severe thunderstorms late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will be the main concern, with large hail and a few tornadoes possible. - Heavy rainfall amounts up to 1.5" possible with Monday storms. There is a chance for locally higher amounts especially for northwestern parts of Missouri. This could lead to additional flash flooding and river flooding concerns. - Severe potential returns on Wednesday with large hail and damaging winds being the primary concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 There is a shortwave trough to the southwest over the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Flow over the region is currently from the southwest. At the lower levels, increased instability has lead to some remnant, intermittent showers still lingering in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. These showers are slowly moving north and are expected to dissipate around 20Z. Early Monday, there is a trough over the Nevada/Washington,Idaho border expected to enter central CONUS. As it begins to move over the Great Plains region, it becomes more negatively-tilted. After 12Z Monday, it begins to take a more northerly track as it moves over western Nebraska. At the lower levels, our region enters the warm sector of the associated surface warm front late Monday morning as winds shift to the south. Warm, moist air advecting from the Gulf will allow temperatures to warm and dew points to reach the low to mid 60s. CAPE values are expected to range from 1,000-1,500 J/kg with bulk shear exceeding 40 knots which will provide a decent environment for strong to severe storms to develop. Thunderstorms are forecasted to develop in central Kansas Monday afternoon. As they evolve, storms are expected to move into our region late Monday evening into early morning Tuesday. The dry line to our west will be overrun by the surface cold front late Monday evening which suggests a likely potential for a linear convective mode as thunderstorms develop along the cold front. All hazards will be possible with these storms including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. With PWATs surpassing 1.5", rainfall amounts may surpass an inch with Monday storms. There is a chance for locally higher amounts especially for northwestern parts of Missouri. This could lead to additional flash flooding and river flooding concerns. SPC agrees that the stronger severe threat may stay to our west as they have placed our region in a slight risk for Day 2 with an enhanced risk over eastern Kansas. Early Tuesday morning the storms will continue to move east with the boundary and exit the area. Winds will briefly shift to the west with the passing frontal boundary resulting in high temperatures staying in the mid 70s to low 80s. The trough will continue to push north and stagnate over eastern Montana. Wednesday the trough over Montana will then begin to track southeast and then split into two separate shortwaves. The easterly shortwave moves through the flow with an upper level jet streak rounding the base of the trough axis while the westerly shortwave begins to round the west coast into Arizona. At the surface, the surface low passes to the north of the area with the associated surface cold front overrunning the dry line late Wednesday evening. Southerly winds out ahead of the cold front will allow for increased warm, moist air from the Gulf resulting in dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Thunderstorms are forecasted to initiate late Wednesday evening and move easterly in a line along the frontal boundary. CAPE values surpassing 1,000 J/kg and low level lapse rates above 8 degrees C/km suggest ample instability for storm formation. There is plenty of shear with bulk shear values in excess of 50 knots which will help with storm organization. Strong to severe storms may be possible with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. Some uncertainty lies with higher instability remaining to the southeast of the region. This suggests the stronger storms will be to our southeast, but we will continue to monitor this system as the time draws near. Going into the second half of the week, conditions should remain fairly dry with chances for some light precipitation Thursday afternoon and Saturday evening. High temperatures are expected to remain around the upper 60s to mid 70s into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Sub IFR conditions through 14Z are possible across eastern KS/far western Missouri. Greatest confidence is south of I-70. Visibility is expected to be largely unrestricted after 14Z, and ceilings will gradually rise into the MVFR range, potentially into the low VFR category this afternoon. A squalline of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across the region after 02Z. These storms could have wind gusts over 50 knots, especially on the leading edge. Introduced thunderstorm timing in the TAFs, but did not include mention of gusty winds at this point as the gusts should be relatively short lived. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053. KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...BT