637
AXPZ20 KNHC 142010
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1950 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from along Panama to across southern
Costa Rica to 11N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W
to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed
from 01N to 09N between 77W and 86W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to
14N between 88W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 10N between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate winds prevail across the waters off the Baja California
peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to
gentle variable winds are observed in the Gulf of California.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds, and moderate seas
or less, will persist off the Baja California waters through this
week and into the upcoming weekend, except pulsing to locally
strong near Cabo San Lucas at night through Thu night. Pulsing
moderate to locally fresh gap winds will push through the
mountain passages of Baja California into the Gulf of California
at night through much of the week. Gentle to locally moderate
winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open
offshore waters of Mexico through late this week. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough south
or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle to latter
portion of this week. This may increase the winds and seas across
that area toward the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from western
Colombia offshore to 86W, including the Gulf of Panama and waters
S of Costa Rica. This convection may result in higher winds and
seas and dangerous boating conditions.

Gentle to moderate winds are over the waters S of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are
forecast south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds
north of the monsoon trough, through the end of the week.
Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support
seas of 5-6 ft through the remainder of the week, building to up
to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form along
a trough south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the
middle to latter portion of this week. This may increase the
winds and seas in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador toward the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Seas in this area are in the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to
locally moderate winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough where seas are in
the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. Seas may
build to 7-9 ft over the west-central waters by the end of the
week into this weekend due to an expanding area of fresh winds.
A set of northerly swell may approach 30N later in the weekend,
possibly building seas to around 8 ft N of 28N. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough south
or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle to latter
portion of this week. This may increase the winds and seas across
that area toward the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky