989
FXUS63 KGID 111121
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
621 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light westerly winds, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and
  temperatures near 80 degrees will make for a spectacular
  Saturday across the region.

- Clouds, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
  increase across the area overnight tonight as an upper level
  low approaches the area from the intermountain west.

- Overall, seasonably mild temperatures with off and on again
  chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the
  end up the upcoming week. At this point, the odds for severe
  thunderstorms any particular day appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Clear skies and light westerly winds have persisted across the
local area overnight. This has allowed for good viewing of the
northern lights across the area along with seasonably cool low
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 early this
morning.

For today, expect surface winds to remain westerly ahead of an
upper level low expected to track mainly south of the local area
Sunday into Monday. These westerly winds will allow temperatures
to warm to near 80 by early afternoon, and looking at model
soundings, could once again see some fair weather CU develop
this afternoon, although with very low depoints - even sprinkles
appear unlikely. As a result, have some partly cloudy skies for
this afternoon but kept the forecast completely dry.

While the brunt of this next system is expected to pass south
of the local area Sunday evening into Monday, expect the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to both south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas as early as tonight,
and continuing off and on through Monday afternoon. While there
is some very modest instability to work with, shear in the
atmosphere is minimal, and severe weather over this period
appears unlikely. The increased cloud cover and shower activity,
however, should hold afternoon temperatures down closer to
Climatology for this time of year, which is right around 70
degrees.

Behind this system, the daytime hours Tuesday should be dry and
mostly sunny across the region, allowing afternoon temperatures
to climb back closer to 80 across the local area. This will be
ahead of a weak cold front, however, which should bring slightly
cooler temperatures back to the area on Wednesday along with
the return for at least the potential for additional showers and
non-severe thunderstorms.

Thereafter...the upper level pattern will become zonal through
the end of the week, with additional, smaller chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area each day along with
seasonably mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period...although
clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon as an upper
level low approaches the local area from the west. Looking at
model soundings and time heights of data...expect a CIG near 5
KFT to develop by mid-evening...with a VCSH possible by the very
tail end of the TAF periods. Winds overall will be less than 10
KTS out of the west during the daytime hours, becoming more
southwesterly as the low approaches this evening.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi