961
FXUS63 KGID 082353
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to a 25%
  chance) this afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the
  area. No severe weather is expected.

- Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible (up to a 60%
  chance Sunday afternoon) Saturday night through Tuesday night.
  Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 80s and
  low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to mid 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Today and tonight...

A big upper trough extends from the West Coast to the Upper Midwest.
An upper low is centered over South Dakota with mostly northwest
winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas. Temperatures across the area are in the 60s and 70s. Showers
with maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible (up to a 20%
chance) this afternoon and evening across mainly areas north of the
Nebraska Tri-Cities area. No severe weather is expected. Low
temperatures tonight will be mostly in the 40s with northerly winds.

Thursday through Saturday...

Northerly winds will continue across the area on Thursday with highs
similar or slightly cooler than today. Rain and storms will be
possible (up to a 25% chance) Thursday afternoon and evening. Low
temperatures in the 40s are again expected Thursday night with light
northwest winds and mostly clear skies. The portion of the upper
trough over the western part of the country will get cut off from
the trough over the Upper Midwest. Nebraska and Kansas will be in
between these two features on Friday. Northwest winds are expected
to continue across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas on Friday with high temperatures mostly in the 70s.
Low temperatures will continue to be in the 40s Friday night. A
slight warm up is expected for Saturday with high temperatures
mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will generally be out of the
northwest to southwest with mostly sunny skies on Saturday.

Saturday night through Tuesday night...

Low temperatures Saturday night will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s with south to southwest winds. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase (up to near 50%) across the area beginning Saturday
night. Rain and storm chances (up to around 60%) continue during the
day on Sunday as an upper trough moves over the southern and central
Plains. High temperatures will be similar or slightly cooler on
Sunday than the previous day. Low temperatures Sunday night will be
in the 40s and 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to around 55%) will
continue through Sunday night as the upper trough remains over the
southern and central Plains. Rain and storm chances remain (up to
around 50%) on Monday with highs similar or slightly higher
than the previous day. Temperatures are expected to increase
slightly next Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain
and storm chances will continue (up to around 40%) into Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Tonight: Ongoing CU and brzy NW winds should both decr within
the next 1-2 hrs. Rest of the overnight should be fairly quiet
with mostly clr skies and N wind 6-9kt. Confidence: High.

Thursday: Main aviation concern will be the potential for a low
level cloud deck - MVFR to perhaps even briefly IFR based on LCL
heights 12-14Z - to move in from the N. Latest NBM probs for at
least MVFR CIGs are only 15-20%, so not enough confidence to go
beyond SCT at this time. Plan view plots show best potential for
stratus or stratocu to hold off until closer to 15Z, which by
that point LCLs would be on the rise. Winds will bec brzy out of
the N after sunrise, sustained 13-16kt, gusts 20-25kt.
Confidence: Wind - high, CIGs - low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies