Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270143
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move north into Canada tonight while an
attendant cold front moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Some clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected on
Wednesday. High pressure will build into the Mississippi and
Ohio River Valleys Wednesday night, and will extend across the
region into Thursday. A warm front will begin to develop across
Indiana and Ohio on Friday into Saturday as southerly flow
transports moisture into the area, leading to the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
For tonight, strong low pressure over Lake Superior will
continue to lift north into Canada. The attendant cold front
from the low will push east across the remainder of our region
through early morning Wednesday. Showers, perhaps a rumble of
thunder, will continue to decrease in coverage as the front
moves east due to decreasing forcing and instability. Post
frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds will then move in late from the
west. Wind gusts have already diminished outside of convection.
Lows will range from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Post frontal low clouds should hang tough on Wednesday morning
as westerly winds usher in colder temperatures, but through the
day expect these clouds to scatter out to some degree with
temperatures a few degrees either side of normal.

Better clearing takes hold of the area on Wednesday night, with
temperatures falling below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It`ll likely be a tale of two different weather patterns
through the long term period -- a quiet one Thursday through
Friday followed by a much more unsettled pattern Saturday
through the beginning of next week, the latter of which will
bring with it the potential for several rounds of rain and
storms.

For starters, the end of this workweek will close out on a
relatively tranquil note as sfc high pressure builds into the TN
Vly as the pronounced mid/upper level trof finally swings
through the Great Lakes/OH Vly regions. This will set the stage
for NW flow to become established, at least briefly, late
Thursday/Thursday night, with sfc ridging nudging E into the OH
Vly as we progress into Friday/Friday night. Several weak
disturbances aloft will eject E through this flattening flow
Thursday night through Friday night, bringing with it perhaps an
increase in cloud cover. However, despite better moisture
transport developing eastward into the area, LL moisture
profiles should remain too meager to allow anything more than
ISO measurable pcpn locally through Friday night.

Near normal temps are on tap Thursday/Thursday night before
slightly warmer air (5-15 degrees above normal) builds in
Friday/Friday night.

As we progress into the weekend, a somewhat unsettled weather
pattern looks likely to evolve, with several rounds of rain
and/or storms increasingly likely Saturday through at least
Monday night. While the details of this pattern are still to be
resolved, there is good deterministic and ensemble consensus on
a wet pattern developing this weekend into early next week.
Several disturbances should pivot about the nrn periphery of a
midlevel ridge centered over the nrn Gulf, promoting the
development of several weak low pressure waves/centers moving
approximately W to E through the mid MS and OH Rvr Vlys. The
first of these should develop as early as Saturday morning, with
a corresponding enhanced LLJ allowing for better moisture/mass
transport ENE from MO through IL/IN/OH. There will be a quasi-
oscillating boundary that will become established within the
region for the better part of ~3 days, which will serve as a
focus for renewed/additional rounds of rain/storms each day
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

While ensemble guidance points toward higher probs of more
widespread rain/storm activity Saturday near/N of I-70, PoPs
have been broad-brushed at these time ranges to include a chance
of precip just about everywhere. This initial wave, upon its
departure Saturday night, may act to shift the aforementioned
boundary S to closer to/S of the OH Rvr as drier air briefly
builds in behind the first sfc wave Saturday night/early Sunday.
However, renewed convective development is likely on Sunday as
additional S/W energy pivots around the broad-scale ridge axis
and into the OH Vly. This will coincide with more aggressive
moisture transport back N into the region, with PWAT anomalies
exceeding 150% of normal by Sunday night. This should allow for
another round of rain/storms (with some low-end instby being
shown on much of the prevailing guidance).

We should see a northward pivot in the boundary once again
Sunday night into Monday, with more of the local area becoming
situated squarely in the warm sector of the eastward-moving
system, which should eject through the central plains into the
mid MS Rvr Vly by Monday afternoon. Renewed rain/storm chances
will occur once again late Monday/Monday night with the better
forcing and additional lift spreading E ahead of/along the
front, with drier conditions finally returning by later Tuesday.


There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this
weekend into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds
of rain and whether the heaviest activity from each "round"
moves over the same areas more than once. Still a bit too far
out to isolate one specific favored area/corridor for heavy
rain, but it is mentioned here for general awareness purposes,
especially considering the cumulative effect as we progress into
Monday/Monday night. The other item will be the potential for a
few strong/severe storms late Monday/Monday night. The overall
setup, from a pattern recognition perspective, certainly
suggests that severe storms may develop in/near the local area
if the necessary ingredients come together. And if a more wide-
open warm sector is able to develop Monday afternoon/evening,
allowing for a better LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably
strong deep-layer wind fields, a few strong to severe storms
could evolve. However, even with this said, there are too many
uncertainties in time and space at this juncture to include in
the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For tonight, strong low pressure over Lake Superior will
continue to lift north into Canada. The attendant cold front
from the low will push east across the terminals this evening.
Showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, will decrease in coverage
as the front moves east due to decreasing forcing and
instability. That said, there will be a period of MVFR
conditions with showers, with perhaps localized IFR visibilities
in the more robust showers/isolated thunderstorms. Once the
front goes by, the precipitation threat will end as the airmass
stabilizes. Winds will decrease as well and will switch to a
more westerly direction. VFR conditions can then be expected for
much of the night. However, CAA MVFR stratocumulus deck will
make in roads late for our western terminals.

On Wednesday, CAA stratocumlus will linger into the morning. By
afternoon, clouds will lift back to VFR and will begin to
scatter from the west as surface high pressure begins to build
east into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be from the west, becoming
more northwest late, averaging near 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR ceilings
possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hickman


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