


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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092 FXUS66 KLOX 112042 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 142 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...11/133 AM. Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the coasts and lower valleys into next week. Max temperatures will cool today and Saturday and will end up several degrees below normal. There will be continued cooling through the middle of next week with valley highs on Tuesday only in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...11/127 PM. Pretty similar weather conditions are expected each day in the short term. 594 to 595 dam of high pressure will sit over the region and move over the region bit by bit through the next few days, with not too much changing. At the surface, however, onshore pressure gradients have started strengthening and will linger around 9 to 10 mb for the LAX-DAG gradient in the afternoons, while the LAX-BFL gradients linger around 5.5 to 7.0 mb. This onshore flow will not only help the marine layer to push into the coastal valleys each night, but it may limit the afternoon clearing at the beaches, where clouds may stay hugging the coasts each day. As for temperatures, max temps today are expected to be 1 to 5 degrees below yesterdays temperatures thanks to the cooler air from the ocean and the marine layer cloud influence. Little day- to-day changes in temperatures are expected through Monday, with widespread cooling of a few degrees expected Saturday, and then little to a few degrees of warming on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures across the coasts will be in the 70s and lower 80s (though mid to upper 60s for the Central Coast beaches) and mid 80s to mid 90s for the valleys. The Antelope Valley, however, will remain around the low triple digits through Monday. Temperatures across the region during these days will be around 1 to 5 degrees below normal for this time of year, save for the far interior and Antelope Valley where temps will be up to 5 degrees above normal. As for winds, the combination of strong onshore flow and a tight thermal gradient between the coasts and the Antelope Valley would typically make one think that winds will be pretty gusty. However, models and ensembles are really leaning towards below advisory level winds across the region. This being said, some gusty winds will (and have) surfaced across the interior locations. Southwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph (and isolated up to 45-50 mph) will be likely across the Antelope Valley foothills each afternoon and evening, then in the evening, winds will shift NW to N and impact the I-5 Corridor and western portion of the Antelope Valley and Antelope Valley foothills each evening and night. Held off on issuing any wind advisories for now, as stations have only reported gusts around 35 mph. Future shifts may decide to issue advisories since the winds will be so borderline through Monday. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/127 PM. Fairly benign weather will continue through the extended forecast. Weak ridging extending from the SW will cover the state through Wednesday. On Thursday, weak cyclonic flow is forecast to move over the state. Heights will fall slowly through the period from 594 dam on Monday to 590 dam on Thursday. More importantly there will continue to be moderate to strong onshore flow from both to the north and east with the afternoon push to the east (LAX-DAG gradient) continuing to be near 10 mb each day. The onshore flow will allow night through morning low clouds and fog to continue to push across the coasts and into the lower valleys (the 590+ dam heights should smoosh the marine layer low enough to prevent deep valley penetration), with slow to no clearing possible at beaches during the afternoon. Max temps on Tuesday will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than the temps on Monday, and end up 4 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. Temps will not change much from those readings on Wednesday and Thursday. The strong onshore flow will bring gusty (likely advisory level) winds to some of the mountains as well as the western portions of the Antelope Valley and foothills. Additionally, the gusty winds across the mountains and interior along with fairly warm temperatures and fairly low humidities through Tuesday, will bring an uptick in fire weather danger. As for monsoonal moisture, a few ensemble members, especially for the ECWMF, suggests that PWATs over Palmdale may raise up to around 0.8 to 1.0 as early as Wednesday, and continue into Friday. Combined with cyclonic flow potentially funneling monsoonal moisture into the region from the east, a 5 to 10 percent chance for monsoonal thunderstorms is possible Wednesday through Friday next week. && .AVIATION...11/1803Z. At 1735Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3200 feet with a max temperature of 25 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB. There is a 10% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KPRB between 12Z and 16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. There is a 40% chance for no low clouds tonight. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance for no clearing at KSBA and KOXR. Arrival times of cigs may be up to 2 hours earlier than fcst due to unseasonably strong onshore flow. Moderate to high confidence in minimum flight cat being similar to the last 12 hrs. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Minimum cig height may be off by +/- 300 feet. There is a 30 percent chance of 6 kts east wind component at times between 10-17Z. KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for no low clouds tonight. Otherwise, cigs may arrive 2 hours earlier than fcst. Minimum cig height may be off +/- 300 feet. && .MARINE...11/141 PM. High confidence in unseasonably quiet conditions through the forecast period. Night to morning patchy dense fog is possible this weekend, with highest chances off the Central Coast. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Lund AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox