798
FXUS64 KOUN 091115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The main issue during the short term will be storm chances (up to
40%) on Thursday afternoon across portions of western north Texas
through southcentral and southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon
through evening hours along with a marginal risk for these storms to
become severe.

Our synoptic pattern still has a closed upper low persisting over
the Central & Northern Plains with a large amplitude trough
negatively tilted across the western half of the country.  The cold
front that came through our area yesterday will be pushing through
north Texas this morning then stalling around the Dallas/Ft Worth
Metroplex.  A combination of moist air overrunning the surface
boundary/cold front along with the upper trough expelling a
shortwave vort max along to just north of the Red River in southern
Oklahoma may be sufficient to initiate organized severe convection
in a strongly sheared and unstable environment between the Metroplex
up through parts of our southern CWA.  Drier surface air across
western north Texas through southern Oklahoma should inhibit any
surface-based convection keeping the higher severe risk southward
toward the Metroplex.  However model forecast soundings along the
Red River showing potentials for elevated convection above a moist
layer between 4000-6000 ft AGL with cooler steep mid-levels
producing up to 1000 J/kg of un-capped CAPE when the shortwave is
expected to move through.  As a result, could see some elevated
storms developing Thursday afternoon cross our southern CWA with a
low-end severe risk with hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts as the two
severe hazards. The severe risk will end shortly after sundown.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

During the long term, we`ll stay dry with a "wet" trend starting
Sunday through much of next week.  Overall temperatures will be near
seasonably average for mid-May.

The aforementioned upper low is expected to briefly cut-off from its
main northerly (polar) jet flow and spin over the U.S. Southwest on
Friday then recaptured late Saturday and start digging toward the
Southern Plains with its axis across our area Monday when it may
push our next cold front through.  After a surface high moves
through on Saturday, southerly low-level flow with increasing
surface moisture start making its return forming a dryline across
western Texas up through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by Sunday
night and punching through on Monday after being overtaken by the
cold front.  Although storm POPs will return on Sunday as this next
system moves through, can`t rule out the potential for a risk of
severe storms on Monday across parts of our area with a
dryline/surface boundary coming through and both models (GFS &
ECMWF) projecting up to moderate surface-based instability and
perhaps sufficient deep-layer shear across our southern CWA. Of
course Monday is still 4 days out in time and models do deviate in
time after Monday with a faster GFS solution moving out by Tuesday
compared to a slower ECMWF solution sticking around not exiting
until early Wednesday. We`ll stay in a "wet" pattern through the
middle of next week although models still inconsistent with the
mechanisms. The ECMWF digs another trough from the main northerly
jet through our area while the GFS keeps us wet with shortwave
disturbances from another cut-off system over the Southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR category is expected to prevail through the period. A broken
shield of low/mid clouds will continue to advance northward
this morning, and brief period(s) of MVFR cigs cannot be ruled
out at KSPS/KDUA through the day today.

Otherwise, gusty northeasterly winds are expected at terminals
south of Interstate 40. Low probability for thunderstorms remains
evident at KSPS/KDUA by early this afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions
would be expected should a storm move over a terminal

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  54  76  53 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         80  53  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  56  77  55 /  40  10   0   0
Gage OK           79  48  78  50 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  51  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         82  58  78  55 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...34