Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
370 FXXX10 KWNP 091231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2024 May 09 May 10 May 11 00-03UT 1.00 3.33 5.67 (G2) 03-06UT 2.00 4.00 6.67 (G3) 06-09UT 1.00 4.00 5.33 (G1) 09-12UT 2.33 4.33 5.00 (G1) 12-15UT 3.33 4.33 5.00 (G1) 15-18UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 18-21UT 2.67 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 2.67 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10-11 May due to the arrival of CMEs from 07-08 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2024 May 09 May 10 May 11 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through the forecast period given the observed activity from AR 3664 in particular. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 09 2024 0913 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2024 May 09 May 10 May 11 R1-R2 95% 95% 95% R3 or greater 60% 60% 60% Rationale: R3 (Strong) radio blackouts due to X-class flares are likely through the forecast period primarily due to the magnetic complexity and stature of AR 3634.