Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 252329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
729 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Low pressure will approach from the southwest tonight and track west
of our area on Thursday. The low will continue north into Eastern
Canada Thursday night as high pressure returns. Another low will
approach on Friday.

7pm update...Rainfall is overspreading the area as forecast and
the dominant concern here continues to be the flooding
potential. The approaching low is bringing quite a bit of
moisture and warmth that will melt a considerable snow pack
remaining north of the Katahdin region. Snow water equivalent
was as high as 8 inches at Winterville yesterday and most or all
of it will melt in the next few days. Thus rivers will be on
the rise into Saturday.

Previous discussion...Rain ahead of low pressure approaching
from the Mid- Atlantic region will spread north across the area
this evening and continue overnight. The low center is expected
to lift to our west later tonight into Thursday allowing warmer
and more moist air to be pulled north across our area. Fog will
likely developing Downeast late this evening, and then across
the north late tonight as the increasingly humid air gets pulled
north over colder surfaces. Rain will taper off from south to
north on Thursday as the low, tracking to our west, lifts north
and drier air gets pulled in south of the low. Forecast rainfall
amounts vary considerably between the models with close to 2
inches forecast over the north and just over 2 inches Downeast
on the NAM, and around 1 inch over the north and 3 inches
Downeast on the GFS. Will keep just over an inch across the
north and just over 2 inches Downeast in the forecast. Rainfall
combined with water released from snow melt will result in
significant rises on the rivers through Thursday. However, the
rivers, even across the north, are now open so ice jams are not
expected to impact the rivers. The sky will likely remain mostly
cloudy over the north and partially clear Downeast Thursday
afternoon. Some showers are then possible late Thursday
afternoon, especially over western locations, as the upper low
swings into the area. &&

A flood watch has been posted through Saturday afternoon for
northern and central areas.

Expect steady rainfall to end Thursday evening as the surface
and upper lows exit to the northeast. Mainly cloudy skies with a
few lingering showers can be expected across the north Thursday
night, with partial clearing across central and downeast.
Thought about adding patchy fog Thursday night but think there
should be enough of a west gradient to preclude the threat of
any patchy fog. Lows Thursday night will drop into the 40s most

Friday will start out as a dry day before clouds and showers
associated with another weak low from the mid atlantic
overspreads the area late in the day and continues into Friday
evening. Rainfall amounts with this system area expected to be
light, generally a tenth to a third of an inch. Highs on Friday
are expected to be in the low 60s across the region, with lows
Friday night in the 40s.

Saturday will see continued unsettled conditions as a weak
disturbance in advance of an upper low to our west brings the
continued chance for showers. Highs on Saturday will range from
the mid 50s to around 60.

It remains unsettled Saturday night through Sunday as the upper
low to our west drifts across the area. Expect a continued
chance for showers at times. Lows Saturday night will fall into
the mid 30s to around 40 north and lower 40s elsewhere. Highs on
Sunday will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and mid
to upper 50s central and downeast. Expect much warmer and mainly
dry weather for the beginning of the work week with high
temperatures climbing to well above normal levels by the middle
of the week.

NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR then IFR
this evening as rain and lower clouds spread from south to
north. IFR conditions are expected overnight tonight into
Thursday morning. Conditions may return to MVFR then VFR
Downeast Thursday afternoon and improve to MVFR over the north.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions can be expected through
the period, although scattered showers can be expected from
time to time Thursday night through Sunday with brief MVFR
conditions possible in any showers.

NEAR TERM: South winds are expected to increase to SCA with
gusts up to 30 kt tonight into Thursday morning, and seas are
expected to build up to 12 ft. Winds should drop below SCA by
midday Thursday but seas will remain up to 10 ft in response to
the southerly overnight into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions may persist
Thursday night through Friday.

A flood watch has been issued for Downeast from late tonight
into Thursday afternoon and across the north from Thursday
morning through Saturday. The watch for Downeast is mainly for
responses of small streams and rivers to the heavy rainfall
overnight which may approach 2 inches in some areas. The watch
across the north is for the larger rivers response to combined
snow melt and rainfall. The rivers are projected to steadily
rise into early this weekend and may approach flood stage by

ME...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for MEZ001>006-010-011-031.
     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
     for MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.

Near Term...Bloomer/MCW
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Hydrology...Duda is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.