Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 231152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
552 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Main concerns this period will be with convection today, some of
it possibly being severe.

Skies have cleared over southern parts of the CWA early this
morning as a modest impulse is lifting northward into northern Wy.
Should see at least some sunshine this morning into this
afternoon over most of the CWA as drier air and subsidence
continues over the area behind the departing impulse.
convection should then begin firing over the mtns by mid-afternoon
as another weak wave lifts northeast across the CWA around a
weakening upper low over Montana. Decent instability should exist
over the plains this afternoon /about 1000-2000 J/kg/ and with a
belt of stronger mid level winds moving across should see better
organized storms over the far eastern Wy plains into the Panhandle
mid-afternoon into this evening. Large hail and strong wind gusts
expected to be the main threats from any storms. Convection should
weaken some and exit the CWA this evening with a weak surface
trough working eastward across western Neb.

Thursday and Friday looking warm and mainly dry as upper ridging
builds over the Rocky Mtn chain and drier air spreads over the
area on westerly winds. Could even see some max temperatures
surpass 90F over the Panhandle Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Unsettled weather returns Sunday evening into Monday as another
low pressure system moves into the central Rockies. Slow moving
low will keep chance for showers and thunderstorms at least
through Tuesday as downstream blocking ridge very slow to move
east. Southeast low level flow should bring Gulf moisture into
the area. Looks like a pretty good setup for another round of
heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

IFR stratus at KCDR expected to quickly lift to VFR after 13Z. One
last round of showers and thunderstorms today. Using HRRR
guidance, should see convection developing after 20Z and
continuing into the early evening. Especially for our Nebraska
Panhandle airports.


Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Fire weather concerns expected to remain low for the rest of the
week with fuels non-critical due to greenup. Min humidities do
fall to around 15% out west Friday afternoon and 10% Saturday
afternoon but winds should remain in the 10-20 mph range overall.




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