287
FXUS66 KEKA 062159
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
259 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...After a cool and damp period, trending warmer for the
work week, with strong north winds for mid-week, especially along
the coast and over the water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ensembles indicate the weather element most likely to
stand out for this time of year is wind speeds from Tuesday through
Thursday. Windy over the waters Tuesday through Thursday, and over
land, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday on ridges. Probs near 100%
for gale force gusts in outer waters Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. Watch out on Tuesday along the coast as ensembles are
forecasting a 54% chance of gusts over 35 mph for Eureka and 83% for
Fort Bragg, 52% for Crescent City. Lake County looks particularly
targeted for Wednesday and Thursday with ensemble chances of over 35
mph for Clear Lake are 57% for Wednesday and 53% for Thursday.
Crescent City is not out of the woods for wind gusts Wednesday as
probabilities are 53% for gusts over 35mph.

Widespread agreement among ensembles of one last cool night from the
influence of the soon to be exiting shortwave trough (frost will be
somewhat limited due to sky cover), with anomalously strong ridging
arriving Tuesday, with a warming trend heading through Friday as an
extreme positive tilt to the upper ridge develops, reaching into the
northwestern United States, including northern California, as
positively tilted troughing holds on over the Great Basin and
central Rockies. Expect anomalously warm high temperatures and quite
warm low temperatures, with potential for some records to fall from
Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures could reach mid 70s for highs
on Thursday on the coast and mid 80s for some interior valleys. Lows
are forecast in the 50s on the coast for Friday and Saturday
mornings.

As for precipitation, HREF indicates some drizzle potential,
especially north this evening and into the early overnight. After
tonight, ensemble meteograms indicate a long stretch well into next
week of dry weather and this is consistent across the board.
Confidence is high for this scenario. Also, ensembles point to
enhanced stratus potential for Thursday morning in the marine layer,
so this is indicated in the forecast. /MH


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain will trail off as the evening approaches for
the coastal terminals. Gusty southerly winds have eased to 10 knots
at KCEC as of 1pm with flight categories have improved to MVFR as
well. KACV is also getting intermittent rain as swaths of low
decibel returns are indicated via radar. KACV will improve to MVFR
as well with ceilings lifting by nightfall. Winds are expected to
veer west and eventually northerly by this evening as the front
passes through. Large scale ridging will eventually bring subsidence
and clear conditions out for a few days, overnight into Tuesday.
Heavy winds are expected by Tuesday afternoon and last through to
Thursday as strong ridging and northerlies dominate the area. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...Winds are gradually training from the west as the
previously dominant southerlies exit with the front. A northerly
wind regime will become strong and dominant as synoptic ridging sets
up over the western US, ramping up into gales on Tuesday which will
last through to Thursday. The Gale Watch has been updated to a Gale
Warning as the event nears. Expect gusts above 35 kts in all area
waters with some gusts in the northern outer waters reaching 50 kts
late Wednesday night. Wind waves out of the NW will be steep and
square, 9 - 10 feet in height and as many seconds in period. Seas
peaking over 15 ft at 10-11 seconds out of the north by Wednesday
night. The thermal trough will build toward the coast late in the
week resulting in a weakening pressure gradient over the waters and
likely some weak southerly return flow near the immediate coast. /EYS


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png