Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 210434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/


Updated to add snow chances in northwest Tennessee.


Reports of light snow have been received this afternoon from the
Paris, Tennessee, area and it appears that conditions favor a
short period of light rain and/or snow this evening. Temperatures
aloft have cooled sufficiently to support light snow reaching the
surface despite surface temperatures above freezing. Despite the
light snowfall, ground temperatures should remain too warm to
support much, if any, accumulation on roadways. A quick dusting of
snow on grassy surfaces cannot be ruled out but it will not
result in hazardous driving conditions. A winter weather advisory
does not appear necessary at this time. Conditions will be closely
monitored through the evening.

Updated zones and grids have been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Light rain/drizzle associated with an upper level low will
continue to shift off to the East. A few sprinkles may fall near
the Tennessee River after sunset, but all of the Midsouth should
be dry by midnight. North wind has ushered in cooler air across
the Midsouth. Much of the area saw the warmest temperatures of the
day shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will continue to fall
overnight with frost possible across a large portion of the
Midsouth. Wind overnight may help to limit frost, but sheltered
areas could see at least patchy frost. Freezing temperatures are
possible across a large portion of West Tennessee, especially near
the Tennessee River. Clearing skies may allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 20s though most of the region should remain in
the middle to upper 30s.

Clear and dry conditions are expected tomorrow and Thursday as
surface High pressure and a ridge aloft shift across the region.
Frost and freezing temperatures will be possible again Thursday
morning, but freezing conditions should not be as widespread as we
see tonight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will become
light, so frost may be more widespread. A few clouds are expected
to return to the Midsouth late Thursday as the surface high shifts
over the Appalachians and Southerly winds return to the area.

Temperatures will rebound quickly tomorrow and Thursday. Highs
tomorrow should be in the middle to upper 50s with upper 50s to
mid 60s on Thursday. Above normal temperatures are expected Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday as strong
warm advection sets up across Louisiana and South Mississippi the
Southeast. Early Saturday a weakening surface low will track out
of the Central Plains across Missouri. A warm front will be
oriented across Kentucky into Missouri with a cold front trailing
the surface low stretching down into East Texas. Guidance has the
bulk of the precipitation/thunderstorms to our North along the
warm front with minimal activity along and ahead of the cold
front. WPC has up to two inches of rain in the Missouri Bootheel
tapering off to just about a quarter of an inch in most of North
Mississippi. SPC is not advertising the threat of severe storms
in their extended products. Not confident in the weekend forecast
but rain chances should remain enhanced. Slightly cooler, but near
normal conditions are expected early next week.



06Z TAFs

VFR cigs at the sites through most of this period with occasional
breaks. Later...skies will clear altogether as upper trough
slides to the Mid-Atlantic region. Northwest winds a concern
starting mid morning through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Speeds
increasing to 11-15kts with frequent gusts of 17-23kts depending
on site. Winds will quickly diminish late in the period.





AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Clay-
     Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-

MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Fayette-

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN-


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