189
FXUS64 KTSA 191126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Very warm and humid conditions prevail today, with highs reaching
mid 80s to around 90 degrees, or roughly 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A return to active spring weather returns tonight with dry line
established across far western OK/KS. Shortwave over the Great
Basin this morning will move east during the day, with storms
developing along the dry line by late this afternoon and
organizing into a potentially significant complex moving primarily
across western and central KS. In general the 00z models are
showing a bit more coverage into northeast OK late this evening
as storms move into an increasingly less favorable environment
for severe weather with eastward extent through tonight.

Generally quiet day Monday as mid level height rises return ahead
of a stronger system, with very warm and humid conditions
persisting. This system will move into the plains Tuesday with the
dry line mixing quite a bit farther east to near I-35. While
fairly strong cap is likely to be in place, most guidance suggests
at least some development southward into OK late in the period,
with all hazards possible given the strong deep layer wind fields.
Synoptic cold front will eventually push south into the area
Wednesday with potentially more widespread coverage of showers and
storms across western AR and southeast OK, with an attendant
heavy rainfall threat into Thursday as the boundary remains in the
general area.

With this frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity into next
weekend with essentially zonal flow expected, the active weather
will continue with at least some threat of severe weather and
heavy rainfall through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail into this evening. South winds will
gust to over 20 knots at times today at the northeast Oklahoma
sites. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will move into the
northeast Oklahoma sites later this evening and possibly the
northwest Arkansas sites late tonight. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of storm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  69  90  72 /   0  40   0   0
FSM   91  69  92  71 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   89  69  90  72 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   89  65  89  69 /   0  60   0   0
FYV   88  66  89  69 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   88  66  88  70 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   88  67  89  72 /   0  40   0   0
MIO   88  66  88  71 /   0  40  10   0
F10   88  67  89  73 /   0  30   0   0
HHW   88  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05