699
FXUS64 KTSA 070320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will
pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few
hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area
except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging
winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low stratus has more or less risen above 3000 feet, though a few
obs below that can be expected this evening. May also see a few
showers through the early part of the forecast across far eastern
OK and western AR. Severe thunderstorms ongoing across western OK
will move into northeast OK while organizing into a squall line,
generally in the 02-04z time frame. This squall line will have
potential for dangerous wind gusts and large hail, with specific
threat becoming more clear as they move closer to TAF sites.
Farther east and south the threat of storms will persist through
around 10z. MVFR ceilings will persist for a time after the storms
pass, with VFR conditions return late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  83  61  83 /  90  10  10  30
FSM   69  86  65  87 /  80  10   0  60
MLC   67  85  66  86 /  70  10   0  30
BVO   55  81  56  81 /  80  10  10  20
FYV   64  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  70
BYV   64  82  59  82 /  80  10   0  70
MKO   64  81  61  84 /  90  10  10  50
MIO   61  80  58  80 /  90  10  10  60
F10   63  82  62  85 /  90  10  10  30
HHW   69  84  66  85 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14