Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
976 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. Regions 4136 (N19W00, Eao/beta-gamma), 4138 (N28W51, Eai/beta-gamma), and 4139 (N21W15, Dao/beta-gamma) were the most magnetically complex, but lacked noteworthy flare activity. A large eruptive prominence was observed in the SSW late in the period. An associated CME is visible in LASCO imagery but is not expected to have any Earthward trajectory. .Forecast... Moderate flare activity is likely through 17 Jul, with isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) probable from Regions 4140 and 4136 based on their current activity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold starting at 14/1525 UTC and started to decline around 14/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... Continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) will maintain higher than normal electron flux at geostationary orbit through 16 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high, especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jul barring any significant flares from Regions 4137 and 4141 that are near the western limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to exhibit CH HSS influences. Total field (Bt) remained between 6-8 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds have steadily declined from 550 km/s at the start of the day to 475 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun) with brief rotations into the negative. .Forecast... Elevated and mildly disturbed solar wind parameters are expected to persist through Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels late in the period due to a period of southward Bz. .Forecast... The large positive polarity CH in the southern hemisphere will maintain unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated period of active conditions through 17 Jul.