Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
AXUS74 KBRO 141500
DGTBRO

TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-162300
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
900 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

...Extreme drought conditions expand across Zapata County and
develop across Jim Hogg and Starr counties...
...Moderate to severe drought conditions expand across central
portions of Deep South Texas...

.SYNOPSIS...

Most of Deep South Texas has experienced rainfall over the past
month, but generally under one quarter of an inch, and mainly in
January. Over the past 90 days, the majority of rainfall has fallen
across the northeastern and coastal portions of Deep South Texas.
The northeast and coastal portions of Deep South Texas have
generally received anywhere from 25 to 110 percent of their normal
rainfall. The rest of Deep South Texas has received anywhere from 10
to 50 percent of their normal rainfall.

According to the latest United States Drought Monitor...Extreme (D3)
drought conditions have expanded across most of Zapata, southwestern
Jim Hogg, and northwestern Starr counties. Severe (D2) drought
conditions have expanded across most of Jim Hogg and Starr counties,
across extreme southwestern Brooks and western Hidalgo counties.
Severe drought continued across extreme northeastern and southern
Zapata County. Moderate (D1) drought conditions have expanded across
the remainder of Jim Hogg, most of Brooks, and into eastern Hidalgo
counties. Moderate drought conditions continue across southeastern
Cameron County and southcentral Starr. Abnormally dry conditions
(D0) have expanded across northeastern Kenedy County. Drought
conditions especially across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties
are affecting agricultural interests and grasslands as well as
hydrologic and ecologic interests.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

According to the Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook by the
National Interagency Fire Center on February 1st, the potential for
significant wildland fires across Deep South Texas is generally
normal for February 2020 through May 2020, but will continue to be
monitored for elevated potential through the rest of February. The
latest observed Fire Danger Map from the Texas Inter-Agency
Coordination Center (TICC) on February 13th indicated moderate fire
danger across Deep South Texas.

The latest Keetch-Byram Drought Indices (KBDI) were 600 to 700 over
Zapata County and most of Starr County, including southwestern
portions of Jim Hogg and western to central portions of Hidalgo
counties. KDBI values of 500 to 600 were over most of the remainder
of Starr, Jim Hogg, and Hidalgo counties, as well as southwestern
Brooks County and southeastern Cameron County. KBDI values were 400
to 500 over most of the remainder of Brooks County and portions of
Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties. KBDI values were 300 to 400
over the remainder of Cameron and inland Willacy counties, with
coastal Willacy County ranging from 200 to 400. KDBI values across
northeast Kenedy County vary from 0 along the coast to 300 inland.

Residents of Deep South Texas, especially across Zapata, Jim Hogg,
Starr, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties, are urged to take extra
precautions when conducting any outside burning, and should contact
county officials for any scheduled burning. Residents are also
reminded that fire danger can change quickly from one day to another
as winds and relative humidity values vary, especially after frontal
passages.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture and Texas
Agrilife Extension Service Agents...mild weather with short to very
short soil moisture levels were reported. Pasture and rangeland
conditions were fair to poor. Supplemental feeding of livestock
continued. Crop fields were being prepared for vegetable season.
Some producers are prewatering their land in preparation for
planting.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

According to the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality
(TCEQ)...there are 32 cities or water supply entities that are under
voluntary or mandatory water restrictions. There are 8 Public Water
Supply entities in Cameron county, 13 in Hidalgo county, 6 in Starr
county, 3 in Zapata county and 2 in Willacy county. All water users
are urged to conserve water.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Overall, the month of January 2020 was above normal for temperatures
and below normal for rainfall across Deep South Texas.

Current rainfall to date for the month of February at Brownsville is
0.04 of an inch, or 0.55 of an inch below normal. Total rainfall for
2020 to date is 0.57 of an inch, or 1.29 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of February at Harlingen is
0.01 of an inch, or 0.76 of an inch below normal. Total rainfall for
2020 to date is 0.35 of an inch, or 1.48 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of February at McAllen is
0.01 of an inch, or 0.55 of an inch below normal. Total rainfall for
2020 to date is 0.42 of an inch, or 1.19 of an inch below normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

Meteorological outlook...Temperatures return to normal and warm into
the 80s and 90s by early next week. Southerly winds help boost
moisture along the lower Texas coast, bringing a slight chance for a
shower along and east of I69C Saturday night into Sunday. A cold
front is expected to approach the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This will bring the best chance of rain for the region
Wednesday through Thursday, and drop temperatures below normal into
next Saturday, February 22nd.

Rainfall totals are expected to be generally less than one tenth of
an inch across most of Deep South Texas and less than one quarter of
an inch along the lower Texas coast through February 20th. Overall,
near normal to slightly above normal rainfall is expected through
February 23rd.

Temperatures will generally rise above normal through Tuesday
February 18th, and below normal Wednesday through Friday, February
19th, before near normal temperatures return next Saturday, February
20th. Overall, near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through February 23rd.

The long range climate outlook for Deep South Texas through April
2020...derived from guidance from the National Weather Service and
the Climate Prediction Center...indicates that generally near normal
to above normal temperatures and equal chances of below normal,
normal and above normal rainfall are expected for Deep South Texas
through the rest of Winter 2020 into the Spring of 2020. The latest
seasonal drought outlook indicates that drought will remain but will
improve across the western portion of Deep South Texas through April
2020.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

According to the Texas Water Development Board (TDWB)...the current
Texas water share at Falcon Reservoir has remained nearly steady
during the past four weeks at 32.1 percent. This is a slight
increase from a previous level of 30.5 percent three months ago. The
Texas water share at Falcon at this time last year was at 50.8
percent. The current Texas water share at Amistad Reservoir has
remained nearly steady during the past four weeks at 74.9 percent.
This is nearly steady from a previous level of 75.0 percent three
months ago. The Texas water share at Amistad at this time last year
was at 75.4 percent. The reservoirs at Falcon and Amistad provide
much of the water for the Rio Grande Valley. Residents, including
growers and ranchers of the lower Rio Grande Valley are urged to
take all necessary steps to conserve water.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued around Friday,
February 28th, 2020, unless conditions warrant an earlier update.

RELATED WEB SITES...

For additional information...and the latest weather forecast for
Deep South Texas...visit our website at www.weather.gov/rgv. You may
also visit the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
website at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and get the latest information on
reservoir levels from the International Boundary and Water
Commission (IBWC) at www.ibwc.gov.

Additional web sites:

NWS BROWNSVILLE DROUGHT PAGE: http://www.weather.gov/bro/drought

NWS BROWNSVILLE Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS):
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bro

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

U.S. Drought Portal: http://www.drought.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center: http://drought.unl.edu

Texas Water Development Board Reservoir Website:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TICC): http://ticc.tamu.edu

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (water restrictions):
www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/location.html

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information...the USDA...state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites...the
USDA...state Agrilife Extension Service District agents, Texas Inter-
agency Coordination Center, Texas Forest Service, state and federal
wildlife departments Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
(TCEQ), Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the International
Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information
statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
20 South Vermillion Avenue
Brownsville, TX
Phone: 956-504-1432
Email: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Hallman



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