Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
654 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Some showers today in northern lower MI...

High impact weather potential: none.

A southern stream upper low is over the TN Valley early this
morning, while a digging northern stream shortwave is near the
Manitoba/Ontario border. These features will interact over the next
24 hours. Deeper moisture around the southern upper low will get
drawn northward ahead of the northern stream wave, at least until it
moves into northern MI very late tonight. At the surface, a col is
in place over northern MI thru midday, before high pressure starts
to fold across Superior and produce n to ne winds. Precip trends are
the main concern.

Cirrus has already made a northward push into northern lower MI. 00Z
APX raob still had an impressive amount of dry air below 450mb,
leftover from the last several days. Though the 1st showers are
starting to edge into far southern lower MI, it will take some work
to erode the pre-existing dry present in the mid- and low-levels in
northern MI. That said, current showers are taking the form of
deformation-forced bands around the outer edge of the upper low, and
this appears unlikely to change. This allows mid-level forcing to
become stationary for a period in early/mid afternoon (before the
bands start to pull out to the east). And this allows forcing more
time to act locally and overcome dry low-level air.

Except initial showers to sneak into the Saginaw Bay region toward
mid-morning. Gradual nw-ward progress will occur thru 3-4 pm, when
the primary shower band backs up to about an McBain-APN axis. A few
showers could still pop up nw of this over nw lower MI. By sunset,
primary shower band will have retreated back into ne lower MI, and
it will exit northern MI shortly after midnight.

Some models (like the Nam) show an abundance of low level moisture
swinging in from the nne overnight. This feels a bit overaggressive,
and typical of the models after even a light QPF event. That said,
will add a mention of some drizzle very late tonight in parts of ne
lower MI, and will keep the overnight much cloudier east of I-75
than west.

Max temps mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest in nw lower MI (especially
south of TVC). Min temps tonight in the 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Lingering showers diminish Wednesday; Drier/mild Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Southern branch closed upper level low continues
to spin across the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning with
a well-defined, northern stream wave (and attendant cold front)
dropping southeastward across Manitoba, which is expected to cross
northern Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Brief mid-level
ridging returns across the region Wednesday night into Thursday
before a more potent system digs southeastward from
Alberta/Saskatchewan...likely impacting northern Michigan during the
Thursday night - Friday time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lingering PoPs Wednesday.

A somewhat slower decrease in deep layer moisture is anticipated
across the forecast area on Wednesday than was progged 24 hours ago.
24/00z GFS continues to be by far the quickest with drying while
much of the remainder of the 00z suite of guidance continues
moisture and precipitation chances, at least east of I-75, into
Wednesday morning. Wouldn`t be surprised to see western locales
Wednesday morning under plenty of sunshine while areas east of I-75
remain under clouds with a few scattered lingering showers before
precip diminishes entirely across the forecast area by late morning-
early afternoon. Tuesday night/ Wednesday`s associated cold front is
expected to result in a return to below normal temperatures, at
least briefly, with Wednesday afternoon`s highs topping out in the
40s for most.

Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures return Thursday as mid-level
ridging prevails aloft and surface high pressure drifts across the
Midwest/western Great Lakes. High temps climbing back into the 50s
for most with perhaps a few low 60 degree readings across sections
of northern lower.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

A relatively sharp cold front will drop down from Canada to kick off
the start of the extended period...with passage in the Thursday
night through Friday time frame.  The precip will likely be all
liquid...but this front is looking like it may drag down enough cold
air that a few snowflakes shouldn`t be ruled out...particularly
should the precip line up with the diurnal cycle and occur at night.

Moisture may linger into Saturday, but a drying trend should
commence and continue right through the end of the end of the
forecast period. A temporary dip to cooler than normal readings can
be expected at the start of the period on Friday...but temperatures
will moderate through the second half of the weekend, back to
near-normal by Sunday/Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Some showers today. Potential for much lower cigs very late

Low pressure will gradually intensify as it nears the Mid-Atlantic
states today. We will be on the far outer edge of this system,
with some showers gradually moving in from the se. APN has the
best chance of getting wet for part of the afternoon/evening. APN
likely to go MVFR for a period.

Northerly breezes will pick up tonight, and that could bring much
lower cigs. Again, APN has the best shot of a borderline MVFR/IFR


Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Winds will be light for the 1st half of the day, but as high
pressure starts to work in from the nw, n to ne winds will
increase this afternoon into tonight. Advisory-level winds/waves
are expected in some tonight, mainly on Lake MI (Lake Huron gets
in on the act toward morning on Wednesday).


LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ344>346.


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