Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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023 FXUS61 KBUF 302112 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 512 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers will taper off from west to east by this evening. Fair dry weather will then return tonight and persist through at least Friday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The showers (and possibly an isolated thunderstorm) will continue to taper off from west to east later this afternoon and early evening. While the showers will come to an end...a light flow aloft will enable much of the cloud cover to persist for the greater part of tonight. The exception to this will be across the Southern Tier where clearing seen on VSB/IR imagery over northwest Ohio should make its way into the area. The clearing will continue Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid level shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the western counties. A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region. While there will be slgt to low chc pops near and east of Lake Ontario... the passage will be marked by nothing more than patchy clouds and subtle wind shift to mark the occasion. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The period will start out mostly dry as a ridge builds into the region from the west on Thursday. There may be a few showers across the north country as weakening sfc low and trough pass by the area on Thursday morning. Dry weather is expected through most of Friday afternoon before an area of showers approaches from the west. A large occluding sfc low tracking northeast into western Ontario from the upper Midwest on Friday into Saturday will push a cold front toward the region late Friday. A new weaker sfc low will develop over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and track northeast along the cold front. Showers will increase from west to east later Friday into early Saturday as the cold front and secondary sfc low track toward the area, along with the warm front of the secondary sfc low. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as the warm sector with the sfc low moves over the region. Still some timing differences among guidance with slower guidance around 3 to 6 hours slower than some of the faster guidance. Rainfall through Saturday night should range from a few hundredths of an inch for the north country to a few tenths of an inch for far western NY. Temperatures during the period will warm to well above normal with highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to low 70s. Fridays high temperatures will reach at least 15 degrees above normal, warming into the mid 60s to near 80 for the day. Some uncertainty for Thursday temperatures as some guidance has come down a bit on maxT`s across the area, due to slower warm air advection, so made some adjustments down, but still a warm day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east. Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front nearing and entering the region. Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Variables across far western New York late this afternoon will give way to VFR weather towards this evening. Meanwhile...a swath of light to occasionally moderate shower activity will push east across the remainder of the region. Cigs will drop to IFR levels as this pcpn moves through. As we work through tonight...VFR weather will return to the Southern Tier. For the majority of the region though...a period of VFR weather will once again give way to IFR cigs as we work through the overnight. On Wednesday...IFR to MVFR cigs in the morning will give way to VFR weather regionwide. Outlook... Thursday...VFR. Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms. Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather. && .MARINE... A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before dry weather returns for the mid week period. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...TMA