153
FXUS61 KBUF 300006
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
806 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making
its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our
period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common
along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated
with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
There remains a large temperature contrast across the forecast
area this evening with mid 50s across the Saint Lawrence Valley
to the mid 70s toward the NY/PA line. This is all owed to a
stalled frontal boundary currently draped across the region.

As for the dynamics supporting the above, a strong mid level ridge
remains centered over the region through this evening. This has
suppressed any convection across the western counties that would
have normally formed with a stalled surface frontal boundary over
the Southern Tier and upper Genesee Valley within a diurnally
destabilized airmass. Thus, have a dry forecast through at least the
early evening hours before cold front starts to approach from the
northwest tonight.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great
Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift
generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake
Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to
our northwest where showers and storms associated with the
approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While
the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little
fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild
conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to
low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday
night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions
will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday
but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high
pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry
conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain
above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the
forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance
for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on
Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to
move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing
of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances
for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain
above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with ceilings above 5k feet are present across
western and north central NY early this evening. A stationary front
lies across western NY with a light northeast flow on the north side
of the front. The front will move north tonight with clouds and
showers developing from the Finger Lakes region northward. Showers
are likely east of Lake Ontario the second half of the night,
however flight conditions should remain MVFR/VFR. To the west, a
cold front extends from Lower Michigan to Indiana with numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will
approach the region tonight, however most of the showers will remain
northwest of the region. Some showers may brush KIAG and KBUF the
second half of the night but confidence is low. Ceilings will lower
from the west tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions across most of the
region by daybreak Tuesday. The cold front will move across the
entire region Tuesday with steady, light to moderate showers moving
west to east through the day. Flight conditions will remain IFR or
lower through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh east to northeast winds have resulted in choppy conditions as
expected along the western south shores of Lake Ontario where Small
Craft headlines remain in place through this evening. Winds will
diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout
the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few
days.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/JM/Thomas