706
FXUS61 KCLE 290119
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
919 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary boundary to the north of the region will give way
to a cold front that will push through the area Monday into
Monday night. High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by
a weak cold front later on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
920 PM...Quiet weather is expected through the rest of this
evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid-60s.

Previous Discussion...Some showers firing along a weak area of
surface convergence in the eastern third of the CWA at this hour
due to a surface trough, and should be pushing out over the
next few hours. This leaves the forecast area largely dry going
through tonight and into Monday in the warm sector with the low
pressure center and cold front well to the west, although the
stationary front to the north may drift southward clipping the
NW PA counties with a few more isolated showers this evening and
tonight. This frontal system pushes eastward late Monday into
Monday night with the next round of showers and storms for the
forecast area. Some instability out ahead of the expected
convection with the cold front, but it is slightly out of phase
with the layer moisture. Only going to get a short window for
showers and storms with a fairly progressive line, and behind
the cold front, expect the mid and upper levels to dry out
significantly. In the meantime, another fairly warm day near the
80F mark for the bulk of the CWA in temperatures in the range
of 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers are expected for the first half as a cold front associated
with a low pressure over the Western Great Lakes region moves east
across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the boundary, which will further be supported by the area
being positioned in the right entrance region of an upper level jet.
Showers will taper from west to east throughout the day Tuesday. As
an upper level ridge and associated surface high nudge into the area
behind the departing front, conditions will dry out for Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. The high pressure will gradually move
east, allowing for WAA and increased moisture transport to return
across the area. This may result in a few showers late Wednesday
night, but with models generally slowing the progression of the
system, opted to keep it dry for now with the precipitation chances
occurring in the long term period. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
in the low to mid 70s, but will climb on Wednesday into the upper
70s to low 80s with that WAA regime becoming established. Both
nights will be mild with temperatures dropping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chances of precipitation increase for later this week as an
unsettled pattern returns across the US. The key feature driving
much of the weather in this period will be an upper level trough
developing over the western US and gradually shifting east into the
western Great Lakes region before pivoting north. A low pressure
system will develop at the surface, extending a boundary just north
of the CWA on Thursday. This will allow for continued WAA and
moisture advection. Some long range models have marginal diurnal
instability developing on Thursday which may result in a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across western
counties Thursday and Thursday night. By Friday, the aforementioned
trough begins to pivot, likely putting the area under the right
entrance region of the upper level jet. This will allow for strong
upper level support and showers becoming widespread beginning
Friday. These showers will gradually taper from west to east late
Friday night into early Saturday as the cold front moves east across
the area. After these diminish, the chances of showers and
thunderstorms for much of Saturday and Sunday goes down as a ridge
builds in again. Temperatures through the period will start hot with
highs climbing into the low to mid 80s, but gradually cool to highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Lows will generally linger in
the 50s expect for Thursday night when temperatures will only fall
into the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Main period to watch will be towards the
end of the TAF period for Monday afternoon/evening, particularly
across the western TAF sites (TOL/FDY) as a line of
showers/thunderstorms approaches from the west. Included vcts
for now with likely vcts additions needed eastward in the next
update.

Apart from lake breezes at CLE/ERI, winds are generally out of
the south to southwest, around 10 knots. Winds will increase
again out of the south to southwest by late Monday morning, 10
to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday
evening into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue through this evening
before high pressure again becomes established over the area tonight
and allow for winds to weaken to 5-10 knots. These southwest winds
will again increase to 10-15 knots on Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move east across the lake Monday night into
Tuesday. Before the passage of this boundary, there remains a chance
for a weak lake breeze to develop along the western lakeshore.
Behind the cold front, winds will gain more of a westerly component,
but remain at 5-10 knots through Tuesday night. High pressure
returns on Wednesday with a warm front moving north across the lake
on Thursday. This will result in another period of southwesterly
flow of 5-10 knots is expected through Thursday before strengthening
on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front moves east Friday night
into Saturday. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees
of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are
the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
04-29   87(1899)       81(1942)       84(1899)       84(1888)       85(1942)       82(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Campbell
CLIMATE...