Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

High pressure across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi
Valley will attempt to edge closer to northern OH and northwest
PA tonight and Thursday and be overhead Friday. Low pressure
will move from the Central Plains and across the Tennessee
Valley Saturday, but the high pressure to our north is expected
to hold firm.


Quiet night tonight as the focus shifts completely to the east
coast. We retain a degree of troughiness at the surface but the
high across the western Great Lakes will be slowly shifting
eastward. We will lose the gusts this evening, and winds will
begin to diminish. We have lost most of the lower deck of
clouds and all that remain are mid/high clouds. Expecting much
of this to stick around. Some morning clouds off the lake are
possible too across NE OH/NW PA. It will still be cold tonight
and have lows in the lower 20s.

Dry again Thursday. Temperatures will struggle as we continue
the cold north-northwest flow. Other than a few lower 40s across
the Toledo area, most others will only reach the upper 30s.

Thursday night a compact upper low rotates southward across the
Great Lakes. While not expecting much from this, we could get a
few flurries/snow showers out of it for the extreme east
snowbelt toward Friday morning. Have added a 20 percent chance
to the forecast. Lows again in the 20s.


A strong short wave will depart on Friday. The ECMWF prints out
a closed low aloft just north of Erie PA at 12Z Friday. The
models print out very little/no QPF but will have to mention at
least a chance of snow showers across extreme NE OH and NW PA
Friday morning.

The west coast storm system will work its way across the Rockies by
Saturday morning and emerge on the southern plains as a Colorado
low. With the ridging in the northern branch and the blocking along
the east coast, the system should be deflected south. There will be
some impact though. We will see thickening high clouds. Some mid
clouds, virga, perhaps even a period of light rain or snow, may
brush the southern and western counties, south of the turnpike. Will
include a small pop in these areas.

Ridging aloft is progged to build east on Sunday with the resulting
surface high building back across the Great Lakes. We may hang on to
some high clouds early on Sunday but sunshine should increase.
Temperatures will moderate some, with the exception of lake breezes,
but remain below normal.


The long term will start off dry as an amplified ridge of high
pressure is over the region. This means temperatures will be near
normal on Monday and moving to slightly above normal by Tuesday.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase across far western
areas late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the ridge of high
pressure begins to slide off to the east and a surface low begins to
eject out of the Southern Plains.

Precipitation chances become more widespread Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the low begins to cut northeast through parts of the
Ohio Valley. There is still uncertainty on exactly where this low
will track and how fast it will eject out of the Plains, so will
keep chance PoPs in the grids for now.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Conditions are slowly improving through the course of the day
with snow tapering/ending and ceilings lifting. Expecting VFR
for the majority of the evening. Gusts to 25 knots will begin to
subside and winds will shift from north-northeast to more
north-northwest. Could see some MVFR ceilings develop off of the
lake overnight and have included a SCT or BKN mention across the
eastern terminals for several hours Thursday morning.

.Outlook...Some non-VFR possible across northwest PA Friday


Winds on the lake will only slowly diminish and the small craft
advisory will have to be extended. The north northwest wind will
drop below the speed criteria tonight but the waves may stay
at/above 4 feet into Thursday, perhaps even into Friday. High
pressure will build across the lakes early this weekend with
somewhat lighter winds.

The pressure gradient will increase rather quickly on Sunday between
high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure that will track
across the lower Ohio Valley. A small craft advisory will likely be
needed again on Sunday into Monday for northeast winds, especially
for the west half of the lake.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>149.


NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Mottice
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.