Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 151736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Satellite imagery early this morning shows clouds were spreading
southward over northeast Wisconsin in the wake of a cold front.
Weak radar returns were noted over Upper Michigan early this
morning, so will add a period of flurries to the far northeast
during the coldest height 850 temps and instability type clouds.
Lake effect snow showers were slow to start across the far north
early this morning, but will leave a mention going for most of
today before dry air ahead of a high pressure settles into the

This cold front will also lead to temperatures being below normal
for the rest of the work week. Surface high pressure continues to
build into the area later tonight into Friday to produce clear or
clearing skies. Will go with lower than guidance low temps across
the north where snow cover remains.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The medium range models continue to advertise a quiet pattern
shaping up through early next week, thanks to persistent mid-level
ridging stretching from the northern Plains into Canada.  As this
ridge breaks down, precip chances will creep back into the forecast
around Tuesday to Wednesday of next week.  A general model blend was
used for this forecast.

Friday night through Saturday night...A weak storm system will
slowly move east across the central Mississippi Valley during this
period.  Meanwhile, high pressure will be centered over the region
with ample dry air through the column.  Therefore, should see clear
skies with mild temps over the period.

Rest of the forecast...Another storm system will be moving across
the central Mississippi Valley on Sunday night into Monday night.
Although the high pressure system will have weakened somewhat by
this time, still too much dry air via northeast winds for much of a
precip threat.  Should see an increase in and mid and high clouds by
Monday, however.  Eventually though, the dry air looks to erode
enough for light precip chances to return somewhere in the Tuesday
to Wednesday time period.  Temperatures to remain seasonable.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Any remaining stratocumulus in eastern WI should quickly erode
early this afternoon, followed by mostly clear skies for the rest
of the TAF period. Gusty northwest to north winds will become
light tonight, then turn southeast Friday morning.

There could be patchy MVFR/IFR fog over far north central WI
(mainly Vilas county) late tonight, but confidence in this aspect
of the forecast is low.



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