Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLOT 190519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1219 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

223 PM CDT

Through Monday...

Nice Sunday afternoon in progress across the forecast area, with
surface high pressure drifting slowly east across the region.
Sunny skies and light winds were allowing temperatures to warm
into the upper 40`s to mid 50`s as of mid-afternoon, with an
onshore lake breeze beginning to make itself felt by dropping
temps into the mid 40`s near the lake.

Quiet weather will continue tonight, as the area remains under
the influence of ridging aloft. Surface low pressure developing in
the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado will move out across
the Plains by morning however, resulting in a gradual
strengthening of easterly low level winds across our area, and
producing some increase in high clouds overnight. Good radiational
cooling conditions, especially this evening, will allow temps to
fall off into the upper 20`s and lower 30`s in most locations.
Areas along the immediate Lake Michigan shore, especially in the
urban center of Chicago, may stay just above freezing through



223 PM CDT

Monday night through Sunday...

Cool, dry surface high pressure is progged to persist across
eastern Canada through much of the coming week, helping to keep
the primary storm track south of the WFO LOT cwa. Persistent
northeast to east low level winds will also keep things a bit
cooler than average however, especially close to the Lake Michigan
shore. No significant precipitation expected until the end of the

Low pressure passes well south of the forecast area Monday and
Monday night, with precipitation limited to downstate IL/IN. The
gradient between this low and high pressure to our north over
Ontario will provide somewhat blustery northeast winds however,
with winds gusting 25-30 mph at times. This persists into Tuesday,
as the low slowly tracks across the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This northeast-north wind pattern will bring somewhat
cooler temps to the region, especially by Tuesday.

Temps moderate slightly during the mid-week period, closer to our
late-March averages, though that persistent high pressure center
over eastern Canada maintains a prevailing northeast wind which
will maintain lake-induced cooling through the period, especially
across the Chicago metro area.

Guidance remains in decent agreement in amplifying the upper
level pattern by the end of the week, with a jet streak emerging
from an upper trough off the west coast progged to develop another
area of low pressure across the Plains by late Friday. Medium-
range guidance does display differences in the details and timing
of this system into next weekend however. The general model
consensus at this point does indicate the potential for
precipitation Friday through Saturday, as an open mid-level wave
tracks across the region with it`s associated surface low moving
through central IL. Thermal fields would generally support rain
across south south, with a mix of rain/snow across the north,
particularly during the diurnally cooler nighttime periods. As
this is still out there at day 6/7, hard to offer much more detail
at this time.



For the 06Z TAFs...

Gusty northeast winds today and tonight will be the item of
interest for this aviation forecast with otherwise VFR conditions.
Northeast winds will begin increasing around daybreak and
continue the trend upward through early-mid afternoon and then
remain at their peak through the evening. Occasional gusts in
excess of 25 kt remain possible at ORD and MDW during the late
afternoon and evening time.

Despite flow off the lake, low clouds are not expected due to dry
air upstream and not enough cool air for lake effect cloud
generation. It is possible few/scattered 3000 ft or so clouds
could be seen near daybreak Tuesday, but no impacts expected.



225 PM CDT

A weak pressure gradient will support light winds across the lake
this afternoon and onshore flow where lake breezes are able to
develop. The gradient tightens tomorrow as low pressure moves
south of the lake. Winds will strengthen and then generally
maintain a direction in the east to northeast quadrant through
midweek. Onshore flow for both the Illinois and Indiana waters
will support decent wave growth and the need for a small craft
advisory starting Monday morning for the Illinois waters and
Monday afternoon for the Indiana waters. Realistically the area
toward the stateline will ramp up somewhere around mid day but we
elected not to have three different start times for this



LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...7 AM Monday to 9
     AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...3 PM Monday to 9
     AM Wednesday.




WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.