Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
712 FXUS63 KMKX 100911 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 411 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of showers with possible embedded storms will move across srn WI this evening. Gusty winds are expected with the line but severe wind gusts are not expected. - Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today through Sunday night: Shortwave ridging is expected today ahead of a strong digging shortwave trough currently over srn Manitoba. At the sfc, wly winds will develop after high pressure moves east by afternoon and a wave of low pressure moves into nrn WI. Low level warm advection and the arrival of a thermal ridge late in the day should support temps 65-70F. The digging shortwave trough and cold front will provide well organized lift this evening. Although CAPE is very low, there is good agreement among CAMs and the HREF of a line of showers with possibly embedded storms to move across srn WI. The line of showers should be fairly high based given large dewpoint depressions, which will contribute to the expected gusty winds along the line. At this time it is unlikely the wind gusts would reach severe strength. Breezy northwest winds will then follow for Saturday as the low pressure area slowly moves across lower MI. Lingering cold air aloft may allow a few showers to develop over ern WI. High temps will range from the lower to middle 60s over ern WI to upper 60s over south central WI. Another high pressure area will shift across srn WI Sat evening followed by breezy swly winds for Sun. Strong low pressure will move across Ontario on Sun but a weaker wave of low pressure will move into the nrn Great Lakes. Its cold front will then settle south into srn WI Sun nt and possibly stall. A few weak vorticity maximums may aid the lift along the front during this time with pcpn chances up to 40 percent. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Monday through Thursday: Longwave troughing sloping from the Hudson Bay into the Atlantic and moisture streaming over the Canadian Rockies leads to several rounds of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, as well as near normal temperatures. A lingering cold front on Monday combined with a developing low pressure system in the southern Plains may lead to showers lifting northward into southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday, clearing Tuesday night. Modeling is in agreement with WAA and a break in precipitation on Wednesday, with a Canadian-origin shortwave phasing with another southern Plains low on Thursday and bringing the next chances for precipitation and some gustier conditions. This time frame looks to be more favorable for thunderstorm development with surface WAA and a stronger frontal passage leading to increased lift and convective development. Ensembles indicate a small (approximately 10 percent) chance for CAPE values over 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon, with better chances for warming and increased instability going into next weekend. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Isolated ground fog will continue mainly south and west of Madison through 13Z. Otherwise sct-bkn040-050 will develop late this morning into the early afternoon over se and east central WI with lesser cloud cover over south central WI. A line of showers with embedded storms will then move across srn WI this evening with gusty winds expected. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure of 30.0 inches over northwest Wisconsin early this morning will move across Lake Michigan during the middle of the day. The light northerly winds this morning will back to southerly this afternoon. A wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches will then follow the high across northern Lake Michigan tonight then deepen slightly and slow down over northern lower Michigan on Saturday. It will also drag a cold front across the lake tonight. Modest southerly winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Another high pressure area will then move across the lake Saturday evening with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee