Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
717 FXUS63 KMKX 140226 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 926 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers or storms may occur overnight, mainly near the Illinois border. - Smoke from Canadian wildfires may continue to impact air quality in parts of south central Wisconsin late this evening. - Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 926 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The shower activity continues to move off to the east of the area this evening, with most other activity diminished. The main 500 mb low will slowly shift east southeast across Missouri and southern Illinois overnight into Tuesday night. This should keep the area on the far northern fringes of any shower and storm activity with this system. Latest CAMs suggest that most of this activity should remain over northern Illinois, perhaps reaching into the far southern counties overnight into Tuesday. Thus, have cut back PoPs somewhat to mainly southern portions of the area, and further cutbacks may be needed. Also limited any thunder mention to near the Illinois border during this time, and this may be removed in later forecasts, as very little instability is expected to remain over the area. Clouds should linger overnight into Tuesday morning, before scattering out north to south in the afternoon and clearing Tuesday night. Gusty northeast winds overnight into Tuesday should reinforce cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan, with milder 60s well inland for highs. The Air Quality Advisory for wildfire smoke expires at Midnight CDT tonight for portions of south central Wisconsin. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: Spotty shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into this evening as a cold front sinks south and a lake breeze boundary pushes inland. So far this afternoon, brief gusty winds have been observed along with up to quarter sized hail with the stronger cells. This should be the ceiling of intensity for any more storms that develop this afternoon. Tonight, the front should sink south and thunder should give way to showery precipitation as weak WAA aloft continues north of an area of low pressure that`s expected to move east along the Ohio River Valley. Showery activity will continue for the first half of Tuesday, mainly along and south of I-94, and then we should dry out late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Wednesday through Sunday: Wednesday will feature another day of quiet weather as we transition from weak ridging to another approaching trough. A weak shortwave swinging across MN will start to phase with a shortwave trough over the central Mississippi River Valley. This mid-level forcing, in combination with upper level forcing in the right entrance region of an upper jet streak, will help produce shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This is not a really favorable setup for severe, but it has some potential for marginal stuff (again). The next trough of interest comes across the MN/Canadian border Saturday night, but the better forcing is north of our area. Temps will be warming through the week. Upper ridging will then take hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are forecast via warm, moist advection. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 926 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The shower activity continues to move off to the east of the area this evening, with most other activity diminished. The area should remain on the far northern fringes of any shower and storm activity overnight into Tuesday, perhaps reaching into the Janesville and Kenosha terminals. Thus, will limit any precipitation mention in TAFs to these terminals. VFR clouds should gradually lower to MVFR category overnight into Tuesday morning, perhaps down to around 1000 feet AGL toward the Kenosha terminal. These clouds should start scattering out north to south across the area Tuesday afternoon and clearing Tuesday night. Gusty northeast winds overnight into Tuesday night are expected, highest for the lakeshore terminals. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 926 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Low pressure around 29.5 inches will slowly move across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys overnight into Tuesday night. Gusty north to northeast winds and building waves are expected over the middle portions of the lake during this period. High pressure around 30.1 inches over James Bay will linger Wednesday into Thursday. This should bring lighter winds across the lake into the end of the week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan starting later tonight and lingering into most of Tuesday night, for gusty north to northeast winds and building waves. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee