


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
806 ACUS48 KWNS 100818 SWOD48 SPC AC 100816 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days` convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2025