Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 202219 CCA
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
519 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Beautiful weather today as sunny skies and high pressure dominant
the sensible weather. Temperatures this morning dropped into the
30s and have rebounded quickly this afternoon as dry air in place
led to a quick warm up once the sun was up. This high pressure is
expected to shift east of the area through the short term and will
drive the weather through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Once again beautiful sensible weather is expected across the area
in the short term as the high pressure shifts east of the area.
Winds are expected to turn SSW on Sunday aiding in moisture
advection. Aloft, H85 WAA begins tonight and with it warmer
overnight lows. This will set the stage for much of the area to
see near 80 degrees on Sunday. With dewpoints in the 40s it will
be a beautiful Easter Sunday. As far as forecast concerns go,
temperature are the main forecast concern. The models always seem
to underachieve on high temperature forecasts on days like today
and tomorrow. Used the NBM and increased temps a couple of
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Two chances for precip in the extended, otherwise quiet weather
conditions with normal temperatures look likely. The first system
will be a rather messy upper level wave and filling surface low as
it moves across the area. This is expected Monday morning through
Tuesday afternoon. The second system looks to be in the area next
weekend.

As far as the first system, current forecast has a period of POPs
that is likely longer than what will be expected. The GFS still
has precip Tuesday afternoon and as such there are pops in
Tuesday. Otherwise, the overall forcing looks to be lacking. The
CAPE gradient and LLJ terminus is south of the area in northern
MO. In fact the GFS has a MCS like QPF signal that dives south
into MO on Sunday night into Monday morning. The warm front pulls
north of the area Monday. The best chance for pops looks to be
along this warm front. Eventually a weak cold front will move
through the area. This cold front will likely be the best chance
for precipitation from the system on Monday afternoon. That said,
weak convergence along this front will limit convective chances.
Overall this system does not look to be a significant weather
producer at the current junction.

During the week, expect high temperatures to be a forecast concern
as models struggle with temps this time of year. If anything, if
the sun is out, expect warmer temperatures than what guidance is
predicting.

Late next weekend looks to be the next chance for rain and
thunderstorms. At this time it is too soon to discuss specifics,
however it does appear that another shortwave will be the forcing
for this system. As a result, widespread precip under the current
forecast looks less likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions will continue to dominate through the TAF cycle.
Winds will turn southerly tonight then become gusty at 10-20 kts
by Sunday PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The primary concern through the next 1-2 weeks is another crest
forecast to route through the Upper Mississippi River. This crest,
from runoff of recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt in Minnesota and
Wisconsin, now shows up at the end of the 7 day forecast at
Dubuque. Further south, the crest will probably occur beyond the
current forecast period -- toward the end of April or into early
May.

The rise will be most significant from Dubuque to Muscatine,
pushing many sites back into Major flood stage. South of
Muscatine, attenuation of the routed flow will lessen the overall
rise. Since the river forecasts only account for the next 24
hours of forecast rainfall, forecast crests may change in later
updates. Please stay tuned to the latest information through early
May.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure
HYDROLOGY...Uttech



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