302
FXUS63 KDVN 112341
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
541 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through the rest
  of the week and beyond, with highs in the 40s and 50s through
  the weekend, and 50s to low 60s by early next week.

- Precipitation chances remain limited through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region
will lead to quiet conditions into tonight as temps fall back
into the 20s to lower 30s. A weak mid-level impulse will track
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois on Thursday, but with
dry air in place most areas will not receive measurable precip.
There is a low chance (~20%) for a narrow band of light
rain/sprinkles Thursday AM (possibly mixed with snow or
flurries) tied to a zone of mid- level WAA and Fgen. The
wettest models have trace to a few hundredths of QPF
(EC/NAMnest/HRRR) mainly to the west and southwest of the Quad
Cities, with many other models mostly dry (RAP/HREF/CMC). Then
for the rest of the day, expect well above normal temperatures
once again with highs in the 40s to lower 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The next chance for precipitation looks to be Saturday and
Saturday night (across the southern outlook area), as a southern
stream wave is progged to produce a compact trough that will
translate across the southern US. The question will be how far
north will the precipitation shield make it as the bulk of the
moisture looks to remain to the south. The NBM suggests 10-30%
PoPs, mainly south of I-80. If any precipitation does manage to
reach into our southern counties, temperatures will be warm
enough for all rain.

As for temperatures, confidence remains high for a gradual warming
trend this week into mid-week next week. A large northern stream
upper ridge is progged to develop over the central CONUS for the end
of the week. Prevailing southerly flow will help enhance a thermal
ridge, increasing our temperatures over the next several days. A
time series of the ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails indicates values for
high temperatures steadily increasing into Tuesday next week, with
values increasing to 0.7 to 0.9 in our area, which indicates pretty
good consensus among the EC ensembles of warmer than average
temperatures. The exact extent of the warm up for early next week
remains uncertain as 850 mb temperatures from the GEFS and EC
ensembles differ by at least a few degrees, but there is a strong
enough signal to say with confidence that temperatures will be well
above average, with 850 temperatures roughly between 9 to 12 degrees
C, which would be near the daily maximum for 00z/6 PM on Tuesday.
Could this mean that 60+ degree F high temperatures are in play next
week? The short answer is yes, but how early will we see them
remains uncertain. It`s possible we could see them over our south as
early as Monday across our south, but at the moment, confidence
remains higher for Tuesday into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Will continue the VFR trend for another TAF cycle, with a
general light sfc wind regime as well. If we had to pick a
direction, there will be some southerly component to the winds
when they stray from light and variable. Still a low chance for
some spotty light showers or sprinkles Thu morning. But the
models are having trouble top-down saturating the dry LLVLs and
any precip may have to come out of a mid deck. Thus most precip
may remain in virga form and pose little threat for reduced VSBY
at the sfc.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...12