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000
FXUS63 KDVN 051946
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Key Messages:

1. Back door cold front could lead to some showers and storms
Tuesday.

2. Dry air will keep temperatures pleasant across the area.

Discussion:

Omega block still in place as low pressure aloft is centered
northeast of the area and a large amplitude ridge was found over
the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was east of the
area. This pattern resulted in flow from the east into the area.
This was bringing in smoke from fires in Quebec and Michigan. It
also brought in much drier air as dewpoints in the 40s make for a
great day today. The better BL moisture is not far away, to the
west and northwest, but with the flow pattern it should stay drier
until convergence ahead of the backdoor cold front pools moisture
ahead of it.

Dry air looks to remain in place until later in the afternoon on
Tuesday when better BL moisture moves in from the north ahead of
the sfc front. The lack of moisture means that CAPE is at or below
1000 J/Kg at the sfc. It also means that the model Z the CAMs try
to move into the area in the morning will likely evaporate before
reaching the ground. Looking to updraft organization, deep layer
shear is 30 kts, but most of this will be aloft and above where
the CAPE is expected. Therefore any convection that forms will be
cold pool dominated. All in all this leads me to believe most of
the area will see showers and may not see much until closer to 00z
Wednesday. Some CAMs have storms across the northwest CWA where
better BL moisture and CAPE is possible. I still think that we
won`t see severe storms and if the CAMs are correct maybe a strong
storm closer to moisture gradient west of CID. CAMs aren`t all
that aggressive with QPF and most of them suggest between now and
Wednesday that the QC area stays dry. So while another chance for
precip, not a very good one at that in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Key messages:

1. Back door cold front slowly moving through area into Wednesday.

2. Normal temperatures with dry air expected Wednesday through
the end of the week.

3. Another front expected this weekend and could lead to another
chance for rain.

Discussion:

No real prospects for drought busting rain in the long term even
though some precip is expected to start the period and again this
weekend. Omega block looks to remain through most of the long term
with some deformation and changing of the positions of the lows
and even the amplitude of the ridge. These differences will move
the storm track later in the week to bring chances for precip for
this weekend. After this and into next week, the omega block could
break down. Guidance is notorious for breaking down blocking
patterns quickly, so confidence is low in this occurring at this
time.

Looking to Tuesday night into Wednesday, back door cold front
slowly sags south and west through the area. Weak ripples around
the ridge along with some llvl moisture, means that chances for
rain and even some thunder continue. CAMs are not all that
interested in thunderstorms so showers may be the primary mode for
precip. The GFS earlier had a MCS run along the front from NW to
SE overnight into Wednesday morning. Do not think this will
happen. Only one CAM run had a shower that did the same thing, the
rest had showers and storms that ran south into the better
unstable air. Overall guidance misses the QC again with QPF. Kept
the chc pops and think this is good for most of the area. Better
chance for rain will be across western portions of the CWA.

Quiet with low RH and temps near normal until the weekend. This
looks like a great stretch of weather. This is a concern that the
pattern may usher in more smoke from fires to the east, so that
may be another thing going forward.

This weekend, another cold front is expected Saturday night into
Sunday. NBM prob QPF is not all that excited for QPF with the
front as the better forcing does look to be west of the area at
this time. We will need to see how this unfolds in the next few
days, because at this time, the forecast rain may not do much to
help the dry conditions.12


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions with light winds expected through the period. Winds
may be more easterly, but all in all will likely be vrb through
the overnight. Schc for shra at DBQ around 18z tomorrow.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs