Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 161921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
221 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Cold front and associated moisture gradient pushed south through
the area today. Scattered thunderstorms formed across the far
southern CWA and then pushed out of the area. High pressure built
into the area leading to cooler and drier air into the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Main forecast concern through the short term period are the
temperatures. Overall, from a sensible weather standpoint, tonight
will seem more like late Spring than mid summer as dewpoints and
temps drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. There is a question of
how low to go with lows tonight. Think areas north of I80 may see
temps more like the upper 50s for lows. Regardless, no impacts
expected from the weather. It looks like A/C can take a break.
Tomorrow, temperatures will warm into the low 80s, but with
dewpoints in the low to upper 50s expect a beautiful sunny day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Main message for the long term, dewpoints in the 70s will be
missing from the area with the exception of Thursday and Friday,
when thunderstorms are possible. Otherwise, beautiful sensible
weather is expected through most of the long term.

Overall great agreement between the 12z guidance in momentum
fields as overall NW flow is expected across the area. Midweek a
strong wave in the flow is expected to induce moisture transport
across the area. H85 LLJ is expected across central IA Wednesday
night into Thursday. This will return oppressive dewpoints to the
area. At the same time a warm front and surface low is expected to
track just north of the area. Low-level shear with this system
will need to be watched for overall severe risk. At this time,
deep layer shear suggests that organized updrafts will struggle to
form. That said, 0-1km and 0-3km shear, driven by LLJ, looks
conducive for bowing segments within the storms. The shear that
does exist will likely aid in organizing cold pool driven
convection and possibly lead to a low end severe threat. That said
this will need to be watched as the LLJ is driving this threat
and could change in future runs.

Past this system, another high pressure is expected to move in.
With it, drier air for the weekend. This weekend looks like a
great weekend from a sensible weather perspective.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period with no sig aviation




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