Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 160527
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Heavier snow band setup a little further north than expected. As a
result, had to move the advisory north to Des Moines, Henderson
and Warren Counties. This heavy band should move out of the area
by 11pm. After this, light snow is expected. Still seeing area
roads covered with snow, this will cause slick conditions for the
am commute, especially on untreated roadway surfaces.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Area radars and surface reports showed a large area of snow from
KS, SE NE across MO into southern IL this afternoon. This was in
an area of lift ahead of a low amplitude trough lifting out of the
Rockies and an associated 850 mb low. The northern edge of this
snow with enhanced bands, had overspread northeast Missouri and
southeast Iowa early this afternoon. Elsewhere, conditions were
seasonably cold and dry under thickening high level cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northeast Missouri,
adjacent west central Illinois and Lee county in southeast Iowa for
late this afternoon through tonight. Expected snow totals of 1 to 3
inches this evening may be followed by patchy freezing drizzle,
leading to slick roads. This will join the Winter Weather Advisories
already in place over northern Missouri and adjacent areas of
central Illinois. However, those headlines continue into Monday to
cover a secondary round of snow that is not expected to impact
our forecast area.

The 12z operational NAM and GFS, show an FGEN band advancing into
northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa late this afternoon and early
evening with overall weakening trend. Latest hi-res models also have
this signal. There is some question as to whether this will in the
current area setting up from Van Buren into Des Moines counties or
further south. Locations under this will see periods of moderate
snow, otherwise, it looks like roughly 4 to 6 hours of light snow
with totals in the 1 to 3 inch range before the upper level forcing
rapidly exits eastward after midnight. After midnight, model
soundings sections become less favorable for any ice introduction
for snow and more favorable for drizzle. With temperatures holding
in the teens and 20s through the night, this would lead to at least
patchy freezing drizzle, especially across the far south. Confidence
that this will be significant is low but will mention in the
advisory product.

North of the advisory, the forecast maintains snow totals of .5
to 1 inch from the highway 34 corridor up to I-80, then mainly
trace amounts further north. This will overspread the area from SW
to NE, as currently underway. Winds will be very light ahead of
in-building surface high pressure, so there will be no risk for
blowing or drifting.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Monday: Maybe some flurries in our far south in the morning then a
chance of light snow in the afternoon. This second round occurs as
low pressure begins to develop in the Lower MS Valley. The GFS
suggests the far southern cwa will be on the northern fringe of the
main pcpn area. However, the ECMWF is farther south and keeps the
dvn cwa dry. This is the reason for keeping only a small chance in
our far south as there is low confidence in this scenario. The
remainder of the cwa will be influenced by dry arctic air.  Highs
will be in the upper 20s.

Monday night through next weekend: This looks to be an extended
period of quiet and dry weather as the area will be mostly dominated
by a northwest flow aloft. The storm track will be well to our north
and east. There is a secondary cold front arriving about Tuesday but
this will be moisture starved and the forcing is in the Great Lakes
region. Otherwise, temperatures should moderate later in the week
and through the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Areas of light snow will diminish early in this period with
visibilities expected to improve to 6SM or better. MVFR stratus
clouds will persist through part of tonight at KCID and KDBQ, and
into Monday morning at KMLI and KBRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for Des Moines-Lee.

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for Hancock-
     Henderson-McDonough-Warren.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gibbs
SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Uttech


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