Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 031936
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
236 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Comfortable fall-like weather conditions were seen across the CWA
today with light north winds. These conditions were mainly due to
cyclonic flow aloft from an upper low rotating over the Great
Lakes. Abundant low level moisture as noted on our 18z special
sounding and temperatures in the low 70s, has allowed an expansive
stratocu deck of clouds to develop this afternoon.

Temperatures at 2pm were in the upper 60s and low 70s, with
dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Pleasant fall-like weather will continue tonight and through
Tuesday, as cyclonic flow aloft advects in more dry and cool air
into the region. The large stratocu deck will continue through
23-00z Tues before dissipating with loss of daytime heating and
increasing subsidence. Some models keep these clouds over the area
for much of the evening and overnight, but I believe this is too
pessimistic. However, if this occurs then forecast lows may be
slightly too cold. I did maintain slight chance wording from
previous shift for a late afternoon shower across our far eastern
counties in IL, as the longwave trough moves through. If any
shower occurs, it will be short lived. Light north winds and
clearing will occur overnight tonight, with lows dropping into the
lower 50s. Some upper 40s are even possible in river valleys if
winds decrease further than forecast. These readings will fall
just short of record lows for the 4th. A climate section with
record lows are listed below for reference.

Tuesday...pleasant conditions are expected with Canadian high
pressure moving into the area. After a cold start, afternoon high
temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 70s. Some diurnal
Cu will develop in the afternoon and then dissipate around
sunset.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tuesday night...surface ridge will slide overhead, allowing for
an ideal radiational cooling setup. Expect lows to drop into the
lower to middle 50s. This once again will be a little higher than
record lows for the date.

Wednesday-Thursday...dry, pleasant, and fall-like conditions will
continue with slightly warmer highs and lows each day, but with
comfortable dewpoints. Highs will top out in the upper 70s/low
80s and lows in the upper 50s.

Thursday night through Monday, an active more summer-like pattern
is expected as return flow sets up, bringing warmer and more
humid air into the area. Temperatures will rise into the 80s and
even some low 90s by Sunday, with dewpoints back into the upper
60s. Summer is not over yet.  Models continue to disagree on
timing and placement of several disturbances moving through the
flow during this time frame. As a result, low confidence rain
chances continue through the end of the work week and into the
weekend. The best chances are this time in the game appear to be
Friday night-Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Cyclonic flow
will keep diurnal clouds in the region through 00z, and then
subsidence and loss of heating will dissipate the clouds. Light
north winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Record Lows for August 4...

Moline.........46 in 1978
Cedar Rapids...47 in 1978
Dubuque........43 in 1978
Burlington.....48 in 1978

Record Lows for August 5...

Moline.........48 in 1978
Cedar Rapids...48 in 1948
Dubuque........47 in 1994
Burlington.....49 in 1912

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gross
SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gross
CLIMATE...Gross



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