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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions: 1
2
000 FGUS73 KDVN 290445 ESFDVN IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177- 187-195-MOC045-199-151800- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook... This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water and the final part for low water. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 08/28/2023 - 11/26/2023 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5 Dubuque 17.0 18.0 21.5 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 Bellevue LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Fulton LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Camanche 17.0 18.5 20.5 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Le Claire LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 Rock Island LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 9 <5 <5 Ill. City LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 9 <5 <5 Muscatine 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 9 <5 9 <5 <5 New Boston LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 5 10 <5 9 <5 7 Keithsburg 14.0 15.5 17.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 8 Gladstone LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 11 <5 9 <5 7 Burlington 15.0 16.5 18.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 7 Keokuk LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5 Gregory Landing 15.0 18.0 25.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 <5 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 12 <5 5 <5 <5 Maquoketa 24.0 26.0 28.5 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 12.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 <5 Anamosa Shaw Rd 14.5 18.0 21.5 : <5 11 <5 6 <5 <5 De Witt 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : 11 28 10 24 6 18 :North Skunk River Sigourney 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 18 28 11 21 5 10 :Skunk River Augusta 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5 :Cedar River Vinton 15.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Palo Blairs Ferry 12.5 15.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cedar Rapids 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 11 <5 8 <5 <5 Cedar Bluff 16.0 20.0 26.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 Conesville 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 9 31 <5 11 <5 <5 :Iowa River Marengo 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 7 28 <5 16 <5 <5 Iowa City 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lone Tree 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Columbus Jct 23.0 25.0 26.5 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wapello 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 6 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 Oakville 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 6 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :English River Kalona 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 11 26 7 15 <5 5 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 22.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francisville 18.0 22.0 25.0 : <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fox River Wayland 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 10 15 7 6 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Freeport 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock River Como 12.5 15.5 18.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Joslin 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 9 18 7 12 <5 6 Moline 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 10 18 6 14 <5 9 :Green River Geneseo 15.0 16.5 18.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5 :La Moine River Colmar 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 32 27 23 23 12 13 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 08/28/2023 - 11/26/2023 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 4.4 4.8 5.5 7.3 9.8 12.0 13.8 Dubuque 7.5 7.7 8.2 9.7 11.6 13.9 15.7 Bellevue LD12 4.0 4.5 5.4 8.2 10.4 12.6 14.1 Fulton LD13 4.4 4.7 5.2 7.8 10.0 12.6 14.4 Camanche 8.7 8.8 9.2 10.4 11.9 13.6 15.0 Le Claire LD14 4.5 4.6 4.9 6.2 7.5 8.9 9.9 Rock Island LD15 4.5 4.8 5.6 7.8 10.2 11.8 14.5 Ill. City LD16 3.6 3.8 4.4 6.1 9.0 11.5 14.0 Muscatine 6.0 6.2 6.5 7.8 10.8 12.9 15.6 New Boston LD17 3.5 3.8 4.6 7.3 10.7 12.8 15.1 Keithsburg 5.5 5.7 6.2 8.8 10.8 13.1 13.6 Gladstone LD18 1.1 1.3 1.9 3.9 6.3 9.2 9.7 Burlington 7.6 7.8 8.2 10.0 11.8 14.2 14.7 Keokuk LD19 2.8 3.5 4.4 6.0 8.1 11.1 12.2 Gregory Landing 6.3 6.4 6.7 7.6 10.3 13.3 14.8 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.8 6.1 8.7 13.7 Maquoketa 9.9 9.9 10.5 11.5 13.2 16.5 21.6 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.2 7.7 9.7 Anamosa Shaw Rd 4.7 4.8 5.2 6.1 7.1 10.5 13.9 De Witt 4S 5.3 5.6 6.1 7.3 8.3 11.4 12.7 :North Skunk River Sigourney 3.1 4.2 5.8 9.2 14.6 18.7 21.4 :Skunk River Augusta 1.5 2.1 2.9 4.6 8.7 12.0 15.3 :Cedar River Vinton 1.9 2.4 3.8 5.5 9.0 11.0 14.4 Palo Blairs Ferry 2.0 2.7 3.7 5.2 7.8 9.3 12.0 Cedar Rapids 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.9 6.8 8.7 12.5 Cedar Bluff 3.9 4.6 5.7 7.3 9.5 11.9 15.8 Conesville 5.4 6.3 7.1 8.7 10.7 12.7 14.5 :Iowa River Marengo 5.9 6.2 7.5 8.9 10.4 14.5 16.3 Iowa City 9.1 9.2 10.0 11.1 13.1 15.7 18.8 Lone Tree 4.2 4.5 5.3 7.7 10.5 12.9 16.6 Columbus Jct 8.5 9.4 10.4 12.1 14.3 17.4 21.1 Wapello 9.8 10.9 12.1 13.7 15.9 18.4 21.7 Oakville 1.5 2.4 3.2 4.6 6.5 8.8 11.7 :English River Kalona 3.9 4.3 5.0 8.2 11.5 14.8 16.8 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 10.2 10.4 11.7 13.0 16.3 17.3 18.4 St Francisville 6.4 7.4 9.0 10.4 14.6 16.1 17.5 :Fox River Wayland 1.7 1.9 2.8 5.2 10.0 14.9 19.0 :Pecatonica River Freeport 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.7 9.8 11.9 13.5 :Rock River Como 3.4 3.4 3.9 5.1 6.5 9.5 12.3 Joslin 4.9 4.9 5.6 7.2 8.7 11.8 14.9 Moline 8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 10.0 11.9 13.5 :Green River Geneseo 2.8 3.2 4.0 5.4 7.6 11.8 14.0 :La Moine River Colmar 3.9 4.3 5.8 9.7 21.6 24.5 25.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 08/28/2023 - 11/26/2023 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Dubuque LD11 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 Dubuque 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 Bellevue LD12 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 Fulton LD13 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 Camanche 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 Le Claire LD14 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 Rock Island LD15 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 Ill. City LD16 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 Muscatine 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 New Boston LD17 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 Keithsburg 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 Gladstone LD18 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 Burlington 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 Keokuk LD19 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Gregory Landing 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 :Maquoketa River Manchester Hwy 20 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Maquoketa 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 :Wapsipinicon River Independence 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Anamosa Shaw Rd 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 De Witt 4S 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 :North Skunk River Sigourney 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Skunk River Augusta 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 :Cedar River Vinton 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 Palo Blairs Ferry 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Cedar Rapids 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Cedar Bluff 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 Conesville 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 :Iowa River Marengo 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 Iowa City 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 Lone Tree 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Columbus Jct 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 Wapello 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 Oakville 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 :English River Kalona 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 :Des Moines River Keosauqua 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 St Francisville 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 :Fox River Wayland 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 :Pecatonica River Freeport 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 :Rock River Como 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 Joslin 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 Moline 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 :Green River Geneseo 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 :La Moine River Colmar 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the end of September. $$
- National Weather Service
- Quad Cities, IA/IL Weather Forecast Office
- 9040 N Harrison Street
- Davenport Municipal Airport
- Davenport, IA 52806-7326
- 563-386-3976
- Page Author: DVN Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-dvn.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC