591
FXUS64 KLZK 140523 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Recent observations across Arkansas indicate cloudy conditions
prevailing. Widely scattered showers were located in northwest
Arkansas.

This precipitation activity was supported by an upper level low,
centered over south central Kansas. This feature will continue to
move eastward, promoting additional convection during the first
half of this forecast period. Recent CAM output suggests some
increase in coverage and intensity between 00-06z, before moving
east of the forecast area.

Scattered light showers are expected Tuesday afternoon, before the
system`s influence moves east of the area.

Warm and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The extended term will begin with an upper level low and associated
trof spinning over the swrn US / northern MX and traversing
eastward. The trof will become somewhat distended as it moves toward
the midsection of the country, but nevertheless should increase
rain chances substantially on Friday.

At the surface it appears that several fronts will be in the
vicinity of the state on Friday. Of highest confidence will be the
presence of a cold front sweeping across TX. The next boundary of
concern will be a slow-moving warm front moving north out of the
Gulf. Most likely this will be over Louisiana and will probably stay
south of Arkansas. However, I will not rule out the possibility of
the front making it further north over southern AR.

Of lower confidence yet will the the positioning and timing of a
quasi-stationary front extending from the ArkLaTex off to the
northeast. Models favor this extending thru AR up to the midwest,
but I am not too confident on exactly where this front will be.

At first look, I would suspect severe weather will be in store for
areas well south of Arkansas in the warm sector. However, in the
unlikely scenario that the warm front and associated surface low end
up further north, a severe weather risk could present itself across
southern Arkansas.

Another concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall from storms
training along and in the vicinity of the frontal boundaries
affecting the region. At the moment this could include southern
Arkansas even if the warm front remains in LA.

After the trof passes, a bit of ridging should start to occur,
bringing 90-degree temperatures into play for portions of the state
on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some lingering SHRA could be seen at the SERN sections for a few
more hrs...but some MVFR or lower CIGs may be seen the rest of the
overnight period for some terminals. Some improvements are
expected by late Tue morning. Additional convection may be seen
across the NERN third of the area for Tue afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  82  62  82 /  10   0  10  40
Camden AR         58  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       56  80  61  78 /  10   0  20  50
Hot Springs AR    58  87  63  83 /   0   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  63  87  65  85 /  10   0   0  20
Monticello AR     62  87  65  85 /   0   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      57  87  64  82 /   0   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  57  80  61  78 /  20   0  20  50
Newport AR        61  81  63  83 /  10   0   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     61  86  64  83 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   57  85  63  83 /  10   0  10  30
Searcy AR         60  83  61  83 /  10   0   0  30
Stuttgart AR      62  82  64  83 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...62