447
FXUS63 KOAX 110258
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
958 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  Sunday through Thursday. Highest precipitation chances (60-80%)
  during that timeframe are Sunday night into Monday. No severe
  weather is currently anticipated.

- Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.Remainder of this afternoon through Saturday:

A weak surface front/wind shift associated with a vigorous
shortwave trough over MN/WI will move through the area this
afternoon with an isolated shower or two possible along it. By
this evening, both clouds and winds will decrease, allowing for
favorable viewing conditions for tonight`s Aurora, which should
be visible on the northern horizon for many.

Abundant sunshine and weak warm advection will allow for
slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday with highs in the upper
70s to around 80.

.Sunday and Monday:

A mid/upper-level low situated over the Great Basin this
afternoon will progress east into the central and southern
Plains during this time period in tandem with a surface low,
which will ultimately pass to our south. Increased forcing for
ascent associated with the approaching midlevel system will
support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
area on Sunday, amidst a weakly unstable environment. The
models do suggest the potential for greater air mass
destabilization to occur along the periphery of the denser
cloud cover near the SD border into west-central IA. But, even
there, vertical shear is forecast to remain quite weak, limiting
any severe weather threat. Highs on Sunday will be a function
of cloud and precipitation coverage with readings generally in
the mid 70s to perhaps low 80s.

As mentioned above, the low pressure system will pass to our
south Sunday night and Monday with the highest PoPs (60-80%)
and precipitation totals likely being confined to locations
along and south of I-80. Monday`s highs will be slightly
cooler; in the low 70s.

.Tuesday through Thursday:

It currently appears that Tuesday will be dry with the mid-MO
Valley residing between the above-mentioned weather system
passing to our east and the next shortwave trough amplifying
over the Rockies into northern Plains. More sunshine will allow
for slightly warmer conditions with highs in the mid 70s. The
midlevel trough will advance east into the northern and central
Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday with the system potentially
lingering into Thursday. In the low levels, 12z global ensemble
data suggest that an associated surface cold front will move
through the mid-MO Valley either Wednesday or Wednesday night.

The forecast will indicate increasing PoPs (30-60%) Tuesday
night with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through
Thursday. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out
Wednesday afternoon and evening, both the EPS and GEFS indicate
less than a 30-40% chance of CAPE >= 500 J/kg developing ahead
of the front. Those numbers suggest a relatively low chance of
sufficient instability for severe-storm development, especially
given that vertical shear will remain rather weak.

Temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 70s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain
light out of the WNW at 5-10kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...KG