487
FXUS61 KOKX 171147
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in from Northern New England through
tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle
of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure offshore gradually moves away from the area today.
Brisk onshore northeasterly flow is allowing for continued low
stratus to linger along the coast and push inland. Additionally
coastal areas, mainly Long Island and extreme coastal southern
Connecticut, are seeing waves of low level moisture being
advected onshore in the form of patchy drizzle. This moisture
should gradually diminish as the boundary layer dries a bit from
daytime heating, but patchy drizzle and mist will remain
possible through the early morning hours.

Shortwave ridging over the area allows a weak surface high
pressure to build into the area from Northern New England
through the day. This will promote a drying of the column,
though a continued onshore northeast flow will likely allow
cloud cover to persist much of the day. Temperatures will be
seasonable with highs in the low to middle 70s.

Cloud cover and dry conditions will persist tonight as high
pressure continues to allow for a northeast flow, though it will
be weakening. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure looks to remain in control on Saturday with
a weakening frontal system approaching from the west. As the
cold front approaches during the day, some widely scattered rain
showers will be possible for extreme western portions of the
area. Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough
and frontal system looks to consolidate in a low pressure system
that develops well south of the area over the Southeast US and
Carolina Coast into Saturday night and Sunday.

The high pressure remains in control through the weekend with
the low passing far enough to the south as to not have much of,
if any, impact to the area. More pronounced mid-level ridging
approaches the area from the west Sunday and into Sunday night,
which strengthens the surface high pressure over the area. This
should allow for further drying and a reduction in cloud cover
through the weekend.

A persistent E/NE flow through the weekend will prevent temperatures
from rising too much. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to
upper 60s with highs Sunday warming up a bit into the middle 60s
to middle 70s. Lows each night will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Mainly dry and above normal for the period.

*Late week cold frontal passage, preceded by showers and
thunderstorms.

A relatively quiet period is expected with ridging both aloft and at
the surface to start the week. It will also be warm, especially away
from the immediate coast where an onshore flow will keep it closer
to normal. The warmest day will likely be Thursday ahead of the cold
front, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The potential is there
for larger departures.

A southern branch upper trough lifts NE out of the Great Basin early
next week, interacting with some northern branch short wave energy.
There are some timing issues with the associated frontal system due
to this interaction. A cold frontal passage is expected sometime
Thursday, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Primarily followed the NBM, but 00Z global models so some slowing of
the system and tried to reflect that trend. While there is also a
chance of convection Wednesday, the better chance looks to be
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure becomes nearly stationary well southeast of the
area, while high pressure builds along the New England coast.

MVFR ceilings are still possible at the NYC terminals through
about 13Z, otherwise it will be VFR today. MVFR ceilings will
return late tonight, first across the eastern terminals during
the early morning hours, and then around 14-15Z Saturday for
the NYC and Lower Hudson terminals. Timing will likely need to
be refined.

N-NE winds 10-15kt, occasional G15-20kt at the coastal terminals
this morning. KGON could see those gusts linger into the first
half of the afternoon. Winds likely veer to the E/SE at 10 kt or
less in the afternoon as the surface ridge axis builds into the
area. Wind become light and variable tonight and then NE around
5 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 15-20 kt this morning. Winds could become more
southerly this afternoon than forecast.

There is some uncertainty with timing the return of MVFR
ceilings on Saturday. It is possible for an earlier arrival.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR likely. Slight chance of showers, mainly N and W
of the city terminals. Patchy light rain and/or drizzle
possible as well.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR in the morning, then VFR. MVFR or lower
could persist at the eastern terminals.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters as waves will remain
at or above 5 feet through the day. Waves gradually diminish
below SCA thresholds this evening for the western ocean zone
though the central and eastern ocean zones will take more time
to drop below SCA threshold. All waters drop below SCA
conditions by Saturday and remain below through the middle of next
week as high pressure remains in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW