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000
FXUS61 KOKX 152323
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
723 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front in the vicinity pushes south of the area
early this evening. High pressure builds in tonight and remains
through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches
from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure
briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on
Saturday. The front remains not too far offshore on Sunday as
high pressure tries to build in, then high pressure strengthens
more on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front was in the vicinity of Long Island through
central New Jersey and along the Pennsylvania/Maryland border.
This front will be pushing slowly southward through this evening
as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Isolated showers
are forming along this boundary as it meets up with old sea
breeze boundaries. Slight chance probabilities remain in the
forecast from the CT coastline on southward over the next few
hours. No thunder expected as there`s hardly any with CAPE or
instability.

Overnight lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees
above normal, and used a blend of the MOS and NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday
night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and
lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers
mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting
late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of
the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and
deterministic models are still showing a weak low center
developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid
level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain
south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers
likely for most of the area through Thursday.

The low to the south doesn`t move much during Friday with an
inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same
time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of
the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon
shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.

There`s some question regarding how far south the departing
cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this
period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when
highs will be only the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary slips to the south tonight as high pressure
builds over the terminals Tuesday, before pushing offshore Tuesday
night.

VFR.

Winds generally NNW at 5 to 10 kt tonight. The winds become more NW
into the morning and remain NW through Tuesday with speeds closer to
10 kt, and gusts around 20 kt by late morning until early evening. A
coastal sea breeze possible once again later in the day, best chance
at JFK. The winds lighten and remain mainly N Tue evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gust start Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts on
Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S sea breeze most likely at JFK on Tuesday, timing may
be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence below
average.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet remain above 5
feet until late this evening, and extended the SCA until 02Z.
Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
through Wednesday. Winds increase Wednesday night as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to a broad area of low
pressure approaching. SCA conds become likely on the ocean by
the end of the night, and possibly on some of the other waters
as well. Winds increase further during Thursday as a low center
develops to the south. Once again, advisory conditions still
likely on the ocean and potentially for other spots. Winds
diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell
with on onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at
least Friday morning. Sub-advisory conditions on all waters
otherwise Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues with the showers this evening, then the
weather is dry tonight through Tuesday night.

A half inch to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected with
this event.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET