301
FXUS64 KSJT 120853
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
353 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024


Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over
Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to
the region.

There is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm today
with 0-6km bulk shears of 30-40KTS. GFS MUCAPES also increase
from 500-1500 J/KG this morning to 2500-3000 J/KG along/east of of
Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater to Sweetwater this afternoon,
so even as lift weakens there will certainly more than enough
instability for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon. Most of West
Central Texas is an a marginal risk of severe storms today.

Some storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall/flooding
with precipital water values of 1.1 to 1.5 inches. Main area of
concern is Coleman and Brown counties, as those counties received
very heavy rainfall last week. Faster moving storms should limit
flood potential however. There is a slight risk of excessive
rainfall along and east of Throckmorton to Baird to Coleman to San
Saba line.

While shower and thunderstorm potential decreases significantly
this evening, an isolated thunderstorm (possibly severe) may be
ongoing for hour or so in extreme eastern counties as it moves
east.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Expect a mainly dry and warmer forecast for early this week as
upper 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm
sector. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.
The next upper level disturbance is due in by middle of this week
and at the surface will see a dryline moving into our area by
late Wednesday afternoon and a weak cool front/dryline
intersection near the Northern Edwards Plateau by Thursday
morning. Also, moderate/strong instability will be over much of
the area with some vertical wind shear. As a result, expect a few
rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening
through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of severe weather
season, so can not rule out a few severe storms. Also, northern
and eastern areas are in a slight risk of excessive rainfall 12Z
Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Going with mainly medium chances
of rain. Look for dry and warmer weather Friday and next Saturday,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s possible Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR by daybreak across most
terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be developing
towards 9Z. Storms will continue in Abilene into the early
afternoon, but end mid morning across the rest of the terminals.
Ceilings at KABI hang on as IFR through the afternoon, but the
rest of the terminals rise to MVFR/VFR early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  84  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  62  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    66  93  61  94 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   64  84  58  85 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  61  85  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       62  89  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       65  85  60  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04