Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Weak low pressure was pressing through the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon, with a trailing cold front draped into the Ohio river
valley. The shallow cooler and moist air mass in it`s wake continued
to result in stubborn low level dreary clouds over most of nrn lower
and eastern upper Michigan. The moisture was stuck under a weak
inversion around 4kft. Despite to slower clearing trend, there
continues to be dry air advection and clearing skies coming in from
the north and west. This is on the forward flank of sfc high
pressure and mid level ridging stretched from Ontario into the
Rockies. Further north and west behind this high pressure, was the
next shortwave trough and cold front, which were resulting in spotty
showers across Manitoba and into far NW Ontario.

Pretty quiet weather through Thursday. The drier air will gradually
take over from NW to SE into tonight, with the full expectation for
skies to clear. The sfc high pressure and mid level ridging settles
in overnight, which will lead to great radiational cooling. Seeing
as how the BL hasn`t been mixed out as well as planned, wondering if
some shallow ground fog can develop in some low lying areas. This
will be more likely across NE lower, where clearing will be last to
occur. The sfc cooling is likely to lead to cooler overnight lows
than what MOS is providing, and have lowered readings down to the
upper teens and lower 20s over much of the area. This also goes for
coastal communities, as slight land breezes are expected to develop.

Thursday will be quite the nice day. Calm/near calm winds and plenty
of sun will start out the day, with only some increased high level
cloud through the day. Winds will back around more out of a
southerly direction ahead of the low pressure and cold front. WAA
leading to quite the jump in temperature. A good 35-40F diurnal
swing anticipated, with highs getting well into the 50s and lower


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Cooler Temperatures Once Again...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops and precipitation type late Thursday
night into early Friday.

More of the same with the chilly temperatures one day then mild ones
the next. So after our mild readings Thursday, another cold front
will move across the region Thursday night with scattered showers
likely behind it. Model soundings are marginal as far as
precipitation type so can not rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing
in with the rain showers. Cooler Friday with partly to mostly cloudy
skies. An Alberta Clipper moving through the flow Friday night now
looks to pass by to our south keeping any precipitation out of our
forecast area. The cool temperatures hang around into Saturday but
with partly to mostly sunny skies and brisk northwest winds. The
next warmup is on tap for Sunday and especially early next week.
Highs Friday and Saturday in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Lows at
night in the upper 20s and lower 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of high pressure
drifting from the plains into the Great Lakes to start the extended
period.  Expect lots of sunshine, and above normal temperatures
returning for the end of the weekend into the first part of the new
work week.  Early trends suggest much of the northern lower could be
well into the 70s for high temperatures Monday and Tuesday.  A
system approaches the region from the west as aforementioned high
pressure moves off the Carolina coast...which would swing the gulf
door wide open for moisture.  The ETA of associated precip is a bit
fuzzy...with the chance for some "opening act" showers early
Tuesday...but I`m thinking the main show will be Wednesday. Either
way, it is still very, very early...but maybe we`ll see our first
springtime convective activity by mid week?


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Stubborn MVFR/IFR clouds...

While the light rains have just pulled east of APN, low clouds
remain locked in across nrn lower Michigan in the shallow cooler air
mass behind a front that pushed through last night. Had to delay the
clearing that will eventually commence later in the afternoon and
possibly the evening for APN. Much drier air does take over through
tonight as high pressure and light/calm winds will be common. Could
actually see some shallow ground fog too, again particularly at APN,
where the low levels will not get mixed out as well. Thursday
looking great, with just some increased higher level clouds out
ahead of the next weak low pressure and cold front.


Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Weak low pressure and a cold front pushed through the region last
night and into this morning, leaving behind a decent enough pressure
gradient for some lower end advisory level gusts. Made some
adjustments to the nearshore waters in the advisories, mainly
extending the headlines for the bridge down through Presque Isle due
to coastal convergence. Higher pressure pressure does settle in late
tonight and into Thursday however with much lighter winds. The next
cold front arrives Thursday night, bringing chances for rain and
snow showers. Winds turn more southerly ahead of this front, with at
least a chance for more low end advisory speeds for over Lake
Michigan. A fairly sharp wind shift out of the NW is expected behind
the front Thursday night.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ345-


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